Kilmarnock vs ST Johnstone match summary and prediction — Premiership
Our model makes Kilmarnock the pick at 54% for Kilmarnock vs ST Johnstone. Form trajectory, comparison data, head-to-head and the reasoning behind the call.
Match summary
Kilmarnock host ST Johnstone on 31 October 2026 at The BBSP Stadium Rugby Park, Kilmarnock. Kilmarnock are the model's favourite, with a win probability of roughly 54%. This matchday 12 fixture in Premiership is listed as Kilmarnock - ST Johnstone. Kick-off is 15:00 UTC.
Form analysis and trajectory
Kilmarnock: they come in on back-to-back defeats, following one win, one draw and one defeat before that. That is one win, one draw and three defeats from the last five, worth 4 points. Their 2026-season record in our dataset (8 scored and 17 conceded in nine matches, 0.89 and 1.89 per game) underlines issues at both ends. That is reflected in a form rating of 34.6 out of 100, and they sit 12th on a goal difference of -15.
ST Johnstone: they come in on the back of a draw, following one win, two draws and one defeat before that. That is one win, three draws and one defeat from the last five, worth 6 points. It leaves them three games without a win. Their 2026-season record in our dataset (9 scored and 14 conceded in eight matches, 1.12 and 1.75 per game) points to a fairly even balance between the two ends of the pitch. That is reflected in a form rating of 44.0 out of 100, and they sit 8th on a goal difference of -4.
Side by side
| Statistic | Kilmarnock | ST Johnstone |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 12th | 8th |
| Goal difference | -15 | -4 |
| Form (last 5, most recent first) | LLWLD | DLDWD |
| Points from last 5 | 4 | 6 |
| Goals scored / conceded (last 5) | 6 / 12 | 5 / 8 |
| Clean sheets (last 5) | 0 | 1 |
| Matches in our dataset (2026 season) | 9 | 8 |
| Goals per game, scored / conceded (2026) | 0.89 / 1.89 | 1.12 / 1.75 |
| Points per game (2026) | 0.89 | 1.0 |
| Form rating (0-100) | 34.6 | 44.0 |
| Players unavailable | 0 | 0 |
| Model win probability | 54% | 24% |
What stands out
- Pre-match form ratings: Kilmarnock 34.6 versus ST Johnstone 44.0, a gap of 9.4, which cuts against the model's favourite and is the tension in this one.
- Availability: No absentees listed for either side in our injury feed at the time of writing.
- Goals outlook: A combined scoring line of 1.60, over 2.5 goals at 56% and both teams to score at 55%.
- First goal: Leans Kilmarnock's way at 60%.
Sentiment and prediction
The model tilts to Kilmarnock at 54%, without enough room to treat it as a formality. The goals line points to over 2.5 goals. Baseline expectation tilts Kilmarnock's way, especially at The BBSP Stadium Rugby Park.
Everything here is model output and a reading of the form rather than a guarantee — the probabilities are published in full so the reasoning behind the call is visible.
Frequently asked questions
Who is favoured to win the match: Kilmarnock or ST Johnstone?
Kilmarnock, with an implied win probability of roughly 54%. The full split is 54% Kilmarnock, 22% the draw and 24% ST Johnstone.
When and where is Kilmarnock vs ST Johnstone being played?
31 October 2026 at The BBSP Stadium Rugby Park, Kilmarnock, kick-off 15:00 UTC.
What was the result of the last match between Kilmarnock and ST Johnstone?
ST Johnstone 4-3 Kilmarnock on 02 August 2026.
What is the recent form of Kilmarnock and ST Johnstone?
Kilmarnock have taken 4 points from their last five (LLWLD), ST Johnstone 6 from theirs (DLDWD). Most recently Kilmarnock took a 1-3 defeat away at Dundee and ST Johnstone a 2-2 draw at home to Motherwell.
How many goals are expected in Kilmarnock vs ST Johnstone?
The model's combined scoring line is 1.60 — 0.60 for Kilmarnock and 1.00 for ST Johnstone. It rates over 2.5 goals at 56%.
Will both teams score?
The model rates both teams to score at 55%, so its call is yes.