Motherwell vs ST Mirren match summary and prediction — Premiership
Our model makes Motherwell the pick at 59% for Motherwell vs ST Mirren. Form trajectory, comparison data, head-to-head and the reasoning behind the call.
Match summary
ST Mirren travel to Motherwell on 31 October 2026 at Fir Park, Motherwell. Motherwell are the model's favourite, with a win probability of roughly 59%. This matchday 12 fixture in Premiership is listed as Motherwell - ST Mirren. Kick-off is 15:00 UTC.
Form analysis and trajectory
Motherwell: they come in on the back of a draw, following four defeats before that. That is no wins, one draw and four defeats from the last five, worth 1 points. It leaves them winless in five. Their 2026-season record in our dataset (10 scored and 11 conceded in nine matches, 1.11 and 1.22 per game) points to a fairly even balance between the two ends of the pitch. That is reflected in a form rating of 26.6 out of 100, and they sit 10th on a goal difference of -7.
ST Mirren: they come in on the back of a draw, following one win and three defeats before that. That is one win, one draw and three defeats from the last five, worth 4 points. Their 2026-season record in our dataset (8 scored and 6 conceded in eight matches, 1.0 and 0.75 per game) points to a side built on keeping the game tight rather than winning it early. That is reflected in a form rating of 36.6 out of 100, and they sit 7th on a goal difference of -7.
Comparison data
| Statistic | Motherwell | ST Mirren |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 10th | 7th |
| Goal difference | -7 | -7 |
| Form (last 5, most recent first) | DLLLL | DWLLL |
| Points from last 5 | 1 | 4 |
| Goals scored / conceded (last 5) | 5 / 11 | 4 / 13 |
| Clean sheets (last 5) | 0 | 0 |
| Matches in our dataset (2026 season) | 9 | 8 |
| Goals per game, scored / conceded (2026) | 1.11 / 1.22 | 1.0 / 0.75 |
| Points per game (2026) | 1.33 | 1.62 |
| Form rating (0-100) | 26.6 | 36.6 |
| Players unavailable | 0 | 0 |
| Model win probability | 59% | 21% |
| Head-to-head wins (last 2) | 2 | 0 |
What stands out
- Head-to-head balance (last 2): Motherwell two wins, ST Mirren none wins, none draws — an edge to Motherwell.
- Most recent meeting: ST Mirren 0-5 Motherwell on 21 February 2026.
- Head-to-head goals: 3.5 per game across those meetings, with both teams scoring in none of the two — a fixture that has tended to open up.
- Pre-match form ratings: Motherwell 26.6 versus ST Mirren 36.6, a gap of 10.0, which cuts against the model's favourite and is the tension in this one.
- Availability: No absentees listed for either side in our injury feed at the time of writing.
- Goals outlook: A combined scoring line of 2.00, over 2.5 goals at 56% and both teams to score at 55%.
- First goal: Leans Motherwell's way at 63%.
Sentiment and prediction
The model leans firmly towards Motherwell at 59%, a gap of 38 percentage points to the next outcome. The goals line points to over 2.5 goals. Baseline expectation tilts Motherwell's way, especially at Fir Park.
Everything here is model output and a reading of the form rather than a guarantee — the probabilities are published in full so the reasoning behind the call is visible.
Frequently asked questions
Who is favoured to win the match: Motherwell or ST Mirren?
Motherwell, with an implied win probability of roughly 59%. The full split is 59% Motherwell, 20% the draw and 21% ST Mirren.
When and where is Motherwell vs ST Mirren being played?
31 October 2026 at Fir Park, Motherwell, kick-off 15:00 UTC.
What was the result of the last match between Motherwell and ST Mirren?
ST Mirren 0-5 Motherwell on 21 February 2026.
What is the recent form of Motherwell and ST Mirren?
Motherwell have taken 1 points from their last five (DLLLL), ST Mirren 4 from theirs (DWLLL). Most recently Motherwell took a 2-2 draw away at ST Johnstone and ST Mirren a 1-1 draw at home to Hibernian.
How many goals are expected in Motherwell vs ST Mirren?
The model's combined scoring line is 2.00 — 1.00 for Motherwell and 1.00 for ST Mirren. It rates over 2.5 goals at 56%.
Will both teams score?
The model rates both teams to score at 55%, so its call is yes.