Celtic vs Kilmarnock — form, head-to-head and match prediction
Our model makes Celtic the pick at 76% for Celtic vs Kilmarnock. Form trajectory, comparison data, head-to-head and the reasoning behind the call.
Match summary
Kilmarnock travel to Celtic on 8 November 2026 at Celtic Park, Glasgow. Celtic are the model's favourite, with a win probability of roughly 76%. This matchday 13 fixture in Premiership is listed as Celtic - Kilmarnock. Kick-off is 16:00 UTC.
Form analysis and trajectory
Celtic: they come in on the back of a defeat, following two wins, one draw and one defeat before that. That is two wins, one draw and two defeats from the last five, worth 7 points. Their 2026-season record in our dataset (24 scored and 13 conceded in eleven matches, 2.18 and 1.18 per game) points to strong attacking output with occasional defensive lapses. That is reflected in a form rating of 62.6 out of 100, and they sit 1st on a goal difference of +17.
Kilmarnock: they come in on the back of a draw, following one win and three defeats before that. That is one win, one draw and three defeats from the last five, worth 4 points. It leaves them three games without a win. Their 2026-season record in our dataset (10 scored and 19 conceded in ten matches, 1.0 and 1.9 per game) points to a fairly even balance between the two ends of the pitch. That is reflected in a form rating of 34.6 out of 100, and they sit 11th on a goal difference of -15.
Comparison data
| Statistic | Celtic | Kilmarnock |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 1st | 11th |
| Goal difference | +17 | -15 |
| Form (last 5, most recent first) | LDWLW | DLLWL |
| Points from last 5 | 7 | 4 |
| Goals scored / conceded (last 5) | 12 / 8 | 7 / 13 |
| Clean sheets (last 5) | 0 | 0 |
| Matches in our dataset (2026 season) | 11 | 10 |
| Goals per game, scored / conceded (2026) | 2.18 / 1.18 | 1.0 / 1.9 |
| Points per game (2026) | 2.0 | 0.9 |
| Form rating (0-100) | 62.6 | 34.6 |
| Players unavailable | 0 | 0 |
| Model win probability | 76% | 11% |
Key match insights
- Pre-match form ratings: Celtic 62.6 versus Kilmarnock 34.6, a gap of 28.0, which aligns with the model's favourite.
- Table gap: Ten places separate them, the kind of margin that usually shows in the first twenty minutes.
- Availability: No absentees listed for either side in our injury feed at the time of writing.
- Goals outlook: A combined scoring line of 3.40, over 2.5 goals at 71% and both teams to score at 62%.
- First goal: Leans Celtic's way at 75%.
The call
The model leans firmly towards Celtic at 76%, a gap of 63 percentage points to the next outcome. Celtic's form line and home advantage back it and the goals line points to over 2.5 goals. Baseline expectation tilts Celtic's way, especially at Celtic Park.
Everything here is model output and a reading of the form rather than a guarantee — the probabilities are published in full so the reasoning behind the call is visible.
Frequently asked questions
Who is favoured to win the match: Celtic or Kilmarnock?
Celtic, with an implied win probability of roughly 76%. The full split is 76% Celtic, 13% the draw and 11% Kilmarnock.
When and where is Celtic vs Kilmarnock being played?
8 November 2026 at Celtic Park, Glasgow, kick-off 16:00 UTC.
What was the result of the last match between Celtic and Kilmarnock?
Kilmarnock 1-5 Celtic on 09 August 2026.
What is the recent form of Celtic and Kilmarnock?
Celtic have taken 7 points from their last five (LDWLW), Kilmarnock 4 from theirs (DLLWL). Most recently Celtic took a 0-2 defeat away at Falkirk and Kilmarnock a 2-2 draw at home to ST Johnstone.
How many goals are expected in Celtic vs Kilmarnock?
The model's combined scoring line is 3.40 — 2.40 for Celtic and 1.00 for Kilmarnock. It rates over 2.5 goals at 71%.
Will both teams score?
The model rates both teams to score at 62%, so its call is yes.