Heart Of Midlothian vs Falkirk: match summary, form and prediction
Our model makes Heart Of Midlothian the pick at 57% for Heart Of Midlothian vs Falkirk. Form trajectory, comparison data, head-to-head and the reasoning behind the call.
Match summary
Heart Of Midlothian host Falkirk on 8 November 2026 at Tynecastle Park, Edinburgh. Heart Of Midlothian are the model's favourite, with a win probability of roughly 57%. This matchday 13 fixture in Premiership is listed as Heart Of Midlothian - Falkirk. Kick-off is 15:00 UTC.
Recent form and trajectory
Heart Of Midlothian: they come in on the back of a defeat, following one win, one draw and one defeat before that. That is one win, one draw and two defeats from the last four, worth 4 points. Their 2026-season record in our dataset (18 scored and 30 conceded in 13 matches, 1.38 and 2.31 per game) points to a fairly even balance between the two ends of the pitch. That is reflected in a form rating of 53.4 out of 100, and they sit 3rd on a goal difference of +7.
Falkirk: they come in on a four-match winning sequence, following one defeat before that. That is four wins, no draws and one defeat from the last five, worth 12 points. It leaves them unbeaten in four. Their 2026-season record in our dataset (10 scored and 6 conceded in eight matches, 1.25 and 0.75 per game) points to a side built on keeping the game tight rather than winning it early. That is reflected in a form rating of 65.8 out of 100, and they sit 4th on a goal difference of +3.
Side by side
| Statistic | Heart Of Midlothian | Falkirk |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 3rd | 4th |
| Goal difference | +7 | +3 |
| Form (last 5, most recent first) | LDWL | WWWWL |
| Points from last 5 | 4 | 12 |
| Goals scored / conceded (last 5) | 5 / 6 | 9 / 3 |
| Clean sheets (last 5) | 1 | 3 |
| Matches in our dataset (2026 season) | 13 | 8 |
| Goals per game, scored / conceded (2026) | 1.38 / 2.31 | 1.25 / 0.75 |
| Points per game (2026) | 1.08 | 1.75 |
| Form rating (0-100) | 53.4 | 65.8 |
| Players unavailable | 0 | 0 |
| Model win probability | 57% | 20% |
| Head-to-head wins (last 3) | 2 | 1 |
Key match insights
- Head-to-head balance (last 3): Heart Of Midlothian two wins, Falkirk one win, none draws — a historically tight match-up.
- Most recent meeting: Falkirk 2-1 Heart Of Midlothian on 15 September 2026.
- Head-to-head goals: 2.33 per game across those meetings, with both teams scoring in one of the three — broadly an average game for goals.
- Pre-match form ratings: Heart Of Midlothian 53.4 versus Falkirk 65.8, a gap of 12.3, which cuts against the model's favourite and is the tension in this one.
- Availability: No absentees listed for either side in our injury feed at the time of writing.
- Goals outlook: A combined scoring line of 3.00, over 2.5 goals at 59% and both teams to score at 57%.
- First goal: Leans Heart Of Midlothian's way at 64%.
Sentiment and prediction
The model leans firmly towards Heart Of Midlothian at 57%, a gap of 33 percentage points to the next outcome. Falkirk's stronger recent metrics back it and the goals line points to over 2.5 goals. Baseline expectation tilts Heart Of Midlothian's way, especially at Tynecastle Park.
This is a data-led read, not a certainty. The numbers are shown as they come out of the model so the basis for the call can be checked rather than assumed.
Frequently asked questions
Who is favoured to win the match: Heart Of Midlothian or Falkirk?
Heart Of Midlothian, with an implied win probability of roughly 57%. The full split is 57% Heart Of Midlothian, 24% the draw and 20% Falkirk.
When and where is Heart Of Midlothian vs Falkirk being played?
8 November 2026 at Tynecastle Park, Edinburgh, kick-off 15:00 UTC.
What was the result of the last match between Heart Of Midlothian and Falkirk?
Falkirk 2-1 Heart Of Midlothian on 15 September 2026.
What is the recent form of Heart Of Midlothian and Falkirk?
Heart Of Midlothian have taken 4 points from their last four (LDWL), Falkirk 12 from theirs (WWWWL). Most recently Heart Of Midlothian took a 1-2 defeat at home to Hibernian and Falkirk a 2-0 win at home to Celtic.
How many goals are expected in Heart Of Midlothian vs Falkirk?
The model's combined scoring line is 3.00 — 1.20 for Heart Of Midlothian and 1.80 for Falkirk. It rates over 2.5 goals at 59%.
Will both teams score?
The model rates both teams to score at 57%, so its call is yes.