Bournemouth vs Liverpool: the numbers, the form and our prediction
Our model makes a draw the pick at 48% for Bournemouth vs Liverpool. Form trajectory, comparison data, head-to-head and the reasoning behind the call.
The fixture at a glance
Liverpool travel to Bournemouth on 20 September 2026 at Vitality Stadium, Bournemouth. No side is favoured: the draw carries our highest model probability at 48%, which is unusual and says more about the matchup than either team. This matchday 5 fixture in Premier League is listed as Bournemouth - Liverpool. Kick-off is 13:00 UTC.
Recent form and trajectory
Bournemouth: they come in on the back of a draw, following one win, two draws and one defeat before that. That is one win, three draws and one defeat from the last five, worth 6 points. It leaves them unbeaten in four. Their 2025-season record in our dataset (52 scored and 44 conceded in 34 matches, 1.53 and 1.29 per game) points to a fairly even balance between the two ends of the pitch. That is reflected in a form rating of 34.8 out of 100, and they sit 15th on a goal difference of -1.
Liverpool: they come in on the back of a win, following two wins and two draws before that. That is three wins, two draws and no defeats from the last five, worth 11 points. It leaves them unbeaten in five. Their 2025-season record in our dataset (95 scored and 73 conceded in 53 matches, 1.79 and 1.38 per game) points to a fairly even balance between the two ends of the pitch. That is reflected in a form rating of 45.5 out of 100, and they sit 8th on a goal difference of +2.
Side by side
| Statistic | Bournemouth | Liverpool |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 15th | 8th |
| Goal difference | -1 | +2 |
| Form (last 5, most recent first) | DWDDL | WDWWD |
| Points from last 5 | 6 | 11 |
| Goals scored / conceded (last 5) | 10 / 7 | 9 / 4 |
| Clean sheets (last 5) | 1 | 2 |
| Matches in our dataset (2025 season) | 34 | 53 |
| Goals per game, scored / conceded (2025) | 1.53 / 1.29 | 1.79 / 1.38 |
| Points per game (2025) | 1.62 | 1.6 |
| Form rating (0-100) | 34.8 | 45.5 |
| Players unavailable | 0 | 0 |
| Model win probability | 15% | 37% |
| Head-to-head wins (last 8) | 2 | 6 |
Key match insights
- Head-to-head balance (last 8): Bournemouth two wins, Liverpool six wins, none draws — an edge to Liverpool.
- Most recent meeting: Bournemouth 3-2 Liverpool on 24 January 2026.
- Head-to-head goals: 4.25 per game across those meetings, with both teams scoring in three of the eight — a fixture that has tended to open up.
- Pre-match form ratings: Bournemouth 34.8 versus Liverpool 45.5, a gap of 10.8, which cuts against the model's favourite and is the tension in this one.
- Availability: No absentees listed for either side in our injury feed at the time of writing.
- Goals outlook: A combined scoring line of 2.20, over 2.5 goals at 30% and both teams to score at 42%.
- First goal: Leans Liverpool's way at 58%.
The call
The model tilts to a draw at 48%, without enough room to treat it as a formality. The goals line points to under 2.5 goals.
Everything here is model output and a reading of the form rather than a guarantee — the probabilities are published in full so the reasoning behind the call is visible.
Frequently asked questions
Who is favoured to win the match: Bournemouth or Liverpool?
Neither side. Our model splits it 15% Bournemouth, 48% the draw and 37% Liverpool, with the draw carrying the highest probability.
When and where is Bournemouth vs Liverpool being played?
20 September 2026 at Vitality Stadium, Bournemouth, kick-off 13:00 UTC.
What was the result of the last match between Bournemouth and Liverpool?
Bournemouth 3-2 Liverpool on 24 January 2026.
What is the recent form of Bournemouth and Liverpool?
Bournemouth have taken 6 points from their last five (DWDDL), Liverpool 11 from theirs (WDWWD). Most recently Bournemouth took a 2-2 draw at home to Brentford and Liverpool a 3-1 win at home to Tottenham.
How many goals are expected in Bournemouth vs Liverpool?
The model's combined scoring line is 2.20 — 1.20 for Bournemouth and 1.00 for Liverpool. It rates over 2.5 goals at 30%.
Will both teams score?
The model rates both teams to score at 42%, so its call is no.