Arsenal vs Everton: the numbers, the form and our prediction
Our model makes Arsenal the pick at 64% for Arsenal vs Everton. Form trajectory, comparison data, head-to-head and the reasoning behind the call.
The fixture at a glance
Arsenal face Everton on 24 October 2026 at Emirates Stadium, London. Arsenal are the model's favourite, with a win probability of roughly 64%. This matchday 8 fixture in Premier League is listed as Arsenal - Everton. Kick-off is 14:00 UTC.
Recent form and trajectory
Arsenal: they come in on the back of a draw, following three wins and one defeat before that. That is three wins, one draw and one defeat from the last five, worth 10 points. It leaves them unbeaten in four. Their 2025-season record in our dataset (116 scored and 39 conceded in 59 matches, 1.97 and 0.66 per game) points to a side doing the job at both ends. That is reflected in a form rating of 66.5 out of 100, and they sit 2nd on a goal difference of +6.
Everton: they come in on the back of a defeat, following two wins and two draws before that. That is two wins, two draws and one defeat from the last five, worth 8 points. Their 2025-season record in our dataset (43 scored and 42 conceded in 33 matches, 1.3 and 1.27 per game) points to a fairly even balance between the two ends of the pitch. That is reflected in a form rating of 45.2 out of 100, and they sit 8th on a goal difference of +1.
Comparison data
| Statistic | Arsenal | Everton |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 2nd | 8th |
| Goal difference | +6 | +1 |
| Form (last 5, most recent first) | DWWWL | LDWWD |
| Points from last 5 | 10 | 8 |
| Goals scored / conceded (last 5) | 8 / 6 | 4 / 4 |
| Clean sheets (last 5) | 2 | 3 |
| Matches in our dataset (2025 season) | 59 | 33 |
| Goals per game, scored / conceded (2025) | 1.97 / 0.66 | 1.3 / 1.27 |
| Points per game (2025) | 2.31 | 1.3 |
| Form rating (0-100) | 66.5 | 45.2 |
| Players unavailable | 8 | 0 |
| Model win probability | 64% | 11% |
| Head-to-head wins (last 7) | 4 | 1 |
What stands out
- Head-to-head balance (last 7): Arsenal four wins, Everton one win, two draws — an edge to Arsenal.
- Most recent meeting: Arsenal 2-0 Everton on 14 March 2026.
- Head-to-head goals: 1.86 per game across those meetings, with both teams scoring in two of the seven — a fixture that has historically stayed tight.
- Pre-match form ratings: Arsenal 66.5 versus Everton 45.2, a gap of 21.2, which aligns with the model's favourite.
- Availability: Arsenal carry the heavier absentee list, eight players to no.
- Goals outlook: A combined scoring line of 2.20, over 2.5 goals at 56% and both teams to score at 52%.
- First goal: Leans Arsenal's way at 68%.
Sentiment and prediction
The model leans firmly towards Arsenal at 64%, a gap of 38 percentage points to the next outcome. The goals line points to over 2.5 goals. Baseline expectation tilts Arsenal's way, especially at Emirates Stadium.
Everything here is model output and a reading of the form rather than a guarantee — the probabilities are published in full so the reasoning behind the call is visible.
Frequently asked questions
Who is favoured to win the match: Arsenal or Everton?
Arsenal, with an implied win probability of roughly 64%. The full split is 64% Arsenal, 25% the draw and 11% Everton.
When and where is Arsenal vs Everton being played?
24 October 2026 at Emirates Stadium, London, kick-off 14:00 UTC.
What was the result of the last match between Arsenal and Everton?
Arsenal 2-0 Everton on 14 March 2026.
What is the recent form of Arsenal and Everton?
Arsenal have taken 10 points from their last five (DWWWL), Everton 8 from theirs (LDWWD). Most recently Arsenal took a 2-2 draw away at Bayern München and Everton a 0-2 defeat at home to Chelsea.
How many goals are expected in Arsenal vs Everton?
The model's combined scoring line is 2.20 — 1.60 for Arsenal and 0.60 for Everton. It rates over 2.5 goals at 56%.
Will both teams score?
The model rates both teams to score at 52%, so its call is yes.
Who is unavailable?
Our injury feed lists eight players unavailable for Arsenal and no for Everton at the time of writing. Confirmed line-ups land about an hour before kick-off.