Chelsea vs Tottenham match summary and prediction — Premier League
Tottenham travel to Chelsea needing a result to steady a season that has drifted — 16th and still looking for rhythm. Form, comparison data and the model's read, below.
The fixture at a glance
Chelsea face Tottenham on 24 October 2026 at Stamford Bridge, London. Chelsea are the model's favourite, with a win probability of roughly 46%. This matchday 8 fixture in Premier League is listed as Chelsea - Tottenham. Kick-off is 16:30 UTC.
Recent form and trajectory
Chelsea: they come in on a two-match winning sequence, following one win, one draw and one defeat before that. That is three wins, one draw and one defeat from the last five, worth 10 points. Their 2025-season record in our dataset (108 scored and 79 conceded in 57 matches, 1.89 and 1.39 per game) points to strong attacking output with occasional defensive lapses. That is reflected in a form rating of 49.3 out of 100, and they sit 4th on a goal difference of +4.
Tottenham: they come in on the back of a win, following two draws and two defeats before that. That is one win, two draws and two defeats from the last five, worth 5 points. Their 2025-season record in our dataset (78 scored and 67 conceded in 49 matches, 1.59 and 1.37 per game) points to a fairly even balance between the two ends of the pitch. That is reflected in a form rating of 44.0 out of 100, and they sit 16th on a goal difference of -4. For a club of Tottenham's standing, that is a season off track rather than a slow start.
Comparison data
| Statistic | Chelsea | Tottenham |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 4th | 16th |
| Goal difference | +4 | -4 |
| Form (last 5, most recent first) | WWLDW | WDLLD |
| Points from last 5 | 10 | 5 |
| Goals scored / conceded (last 5) | 15 / 9 | 7 / 8 |
| Clean sheets (last 5) | 1 | 1 |
| Matches in our dataset (2025 season) | 57 | 49 |
| Goals per game, scored / conceded (2025) | 1.89 / 1.39 | 1.59 / 1.37 |
| Points per game (2025) | 1.58 | 1.45 |
| Form rating (0-100) | 49.3 | 44.0 |
| Players unavailable | 12 | 16 |
| Model win probability | 46% | 31% |
| Head-to-head wins (last 8) | 6 | 1 |
Key match insights
- Head-to-head balance (last 8): Chelsea six wins, Tottenham one win, one draw — an edge to Chelsea.
- Most recent meeting: Chelsea 2-1 Tottenham on 19 May 2026.
- Head-to-head goals: 3.12 per game across those meetings, with both teams scoring in four of the eight — a fixture that has tended to open up.
- Pre-match form ratings: Chelsea 49.3 versus Tottenham 44.0, a gap of 5.3, which aligns with the model's favourite.
- Big club, bad season: Tottenham are 16th with a goal difference of -4 and no settled run of results — well short of where a club of their standing expects to be.
- Table gap: Twelve places separate them, the kind of margin that usually shows in the first twenty minutes.
- Availability: Tottenham carry the heavier absentee list, 16 players to twelve.
- Goals outlook: A combined scoring line of 3.00, over 2.5 goals at 59% and both teams to score at 57%.
- First goal: Leans Chelsea's way at 53%.
The call
The model tilts to Chelsea at 46%, without enough room to treat it as a formality. Chelsea's form line and home advantage back it and the goals line points to over 2.5 goals. Baseline expectation tilts Chelsea's way, especially at Stamford Bridge.
Everything here is model output and a reading of the form rather than a guarantee — the probabilities are published in full so the reasoning behind the call is visible.
Frequently asked questions
Who is favoured to win the match: Chelsea or Tottenham?
Chelsea, with an implied win probability of roughly 46%. The full split is 46% Chelsea, 23% the draw and 31% Tottenham.
When and where is Chelsea vs Tottenham being played?
24 October 2026 at Stamford Bridge, London, kick-off 16:30 UTC.
What was the result of the last match between Chelsea and Tottenham?
Chelsea 2-1 Tottenham on 19 May 2026.
What is the recent form of Chelsea and Tottenham?
Chelsea have taken 10 points from their last five (WWLDW), Tottenham 5 from theirs (WDLLD). Most recently Chelsea took a 2-0 win away at Everton and Tottenham a 3-1 win at home to Coventry.
How many goals are expected in Chelsea vs Tottenham?
The model's combined scoring line is 3.00 — 2.40 for Chelsea and 0.60 for Tottenham. It rates over 2.5 goals at 59%.
Will both teams score?
The model rates both teams to score at 57%, so its call is yes.
Who is unavailable?
Our injury feed lists twelve players unavailable for Chelsea and 16 for Tottenham at the time of writing. Confirmed line-ups land about an hour before kick-off.