Aston Villa vs Fulham: the numbers, the form and our prediction
Aston Villa host Fulham with a season still short of where it should be — 9th in Premier League and searching for consistency. Form, comparison data, head-to-head and our model's read.
Match summary
Fulham travel to Aston Villa on 31 October 2026 at Villa Park, Birmingham. Aston Villa are the model's favourite, with a win probability of roughly 52%. This matchday 9 fixture in Premier League is listed as Aston Villa - Fulham. Kick-off is 20:00 UTC.
Recent form and trajectory
Aston Villa: they come in on the back of a defeat, following four wins before that. That is four wins, no draws and one defeat from the last five, worth 12 points. Their 2025-season record in our dataset (85 scored and 58 conceded in 51 matches, 1.67 and 1.14 per game) points to a fairly even balance between the two ends of the pitch. That is reflected in a form rating of 57.6 out of 100, and they sit 9th on a goal difference of -3. For a club of Aston Villa's standing, that is a season off track rather than a slow start.
Fulham: they come in on the back of a defeat, following two wins, one draw and one defeat before that. That is two wins, one draw and two defeats from the last five, worth 7 points. Their 2025-season record in our dataset (41 scored and 49 conceded in 35 matches, 1.17 and 1.4 per game) points to a fairly even balance between the two ends of the pitch. That is reflected in a form rating of 51.2 out of 100, and they sit 15th on a goal difference of -2.
Comparison data
| Statistic | Aston Villa | Fulham |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 9th | 15th |
| Goal difference | -3 | -2 |
| Form (last 5, most recent first) | LWWWW | LWWLD |
| Points from last 5 | 12 | 7 |
| Goals scored / conceded (last 5) | 12 / 5 | 4 / 4 |
| Clean sheets (last 5) | 2 | 2 |
| Matches in our dataset (2025 season) | 51 | 35 |
| Goals per game, scored / conceded (2025) | 1.67 / 1.14 | 1.17 / 1.4 |
| Points per game (2025) | 1.92 | 1.2 |
| Form rating (0-100) | 57.6 | 51.2 |
| Players unavailable | 6 | 2 |
| Model win probability | 52% | 23% |
| Head-to-head wins (last 8) | 6 | 2 |
What stands out
- Head-to-head balance (last 8): Aston Villa six wins, Fulham two wins, none draws — an edge to Aston Villa.
- Most recent meeting: Fulham 1-0 Aston Villa on 25 April 2026.
- Head-to-head goals: 2.62 per game across those meetings, with both teams scoring in four of the eight — broadly an average game for goals.
- Pre-match form ratings: Aston Villa 57.6 versus Fulham 51.2, a gap of 6.4, which aligns with the model's favourite.
- Big club, bad season: Aston Villa are 9th with a goal difference of -3 and no settled run of results — well short of where a club of their standing expects to be.
- Availability: Aston Villa carry the heavier absentee list, six players to two.
- Goals outlook: A combined scoring line of 2.40, over 2.5 goals at 66% and both teams to score at 63%.
- First goal: Leans Aston Villa's way at 59%.
Sentiment and prediction
The model tilts to Aston Villa at 52%, without enough room to treat it as a formality. Fulham's stronger recent metrics back it and the goals line points to over 2.5 goals. Baseline expectation tilts Aston Villa's way, especially at Villa Park.
This is a data-led read, not a certainty. The numbers are shown as they come out of the model so the basis for the call can be checked rather than assumed.
Frequently asked questions
Who is favoured to win the match: Aston Villa or Fulham?
Aston Villa, with an implied win probability of roughly 52%. The full split is 52% Aston Villa, 25% the draw and 23% Fulham.
When and where is Aston Villa vs Fulham being played?
31 October 2026 at Villa Park, Birmingham, kick-off 20:00 UTC.
What was the result of the last match between Aston Villa and Fulham?
Fulham 1-0 Aston Villa on 25 April 2026.
What is the recent form of Aston Villa and Fulham?
Aston Villa have taken 12 points from their last five (LWWWW), Fulham 7 from theirs (LWWLD). Most recently Aston Villa took a 0-3 defeat away at Bournemouth and Fulham a 0-1 defeat at home to Crystal Palace.
How many goals are expected in Aston Villa vs Fulham?
The model's combined scoring line is 2.40 — 1.20 for Aston Villa and 1.20 for Fulham. It rates over 2.5 goals at 66%.
Will both teams score?
The model rates both teams to score at 63%, so its call is yes.
Who is unavailable?
Our injury feed lists six players unavailable for Aston Villa and two for Fulham at the time of writing. Confirmed line-ups land about an hour before kick-off.