Bournemouth vs Leeds: match summary, form and prediction
Our model makes Bournemouth the pick at 66% for Bournemouth vs Leeds. Form trajectory, comparison data, head-to-head and the reasoning behind the call.
Match summary
Leeds travel to Bournemouth on 31 October 2026 at Vitality Stadium, Bournemouth. Bournemouth are the model's favourite, with a win probability of roughly 66%. This matchday 9 fixture in Premier League is listed as Bournemouth - Leeds. Kick-off is 15:00 UTC.
Form analysis and trajectory
Bournemouth: they come in on a five-match winning sequence. That is five wins, no draws and no defeats from the last five, worth 15 points. It leaves them unbeaten in five. Their 2025-season record in our dataset (52 scored and 44 conceded in 34 matches, 1.53 and 1.29 per game) points to a fairly even balance between the two ends of the pitch. That is reflected in a form rating of 48.1 out of 100, and they sit 13th on a goal difference of -1.
Leeds: they come in on two successive draws, following one win, one draw and one defeat before that. That is one win, three draws and one defeat from the last five, worth 6 points. It leaves them winless in four. Their 2025-season record in our dataset (46 scored and 54 conceded in 37 matches, 1.24 and 1.46 per game) points to a fairly even balance between the two ends of the pitch. That is reflected in a form rating of 45.8 out of 100, and they sit 7th on a goal difference of +3.
Comparison data
| Statistic | Bournemouth | Leeds |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 13th | 7th |
| Goal difference | -1 | +3 |
| Form (last 5, most recent first) | WWWWW | DDLDW |
| Points from last 5 | 15 | 6 |
| Goals scored / conceded (last 5) | 14 / 0 | 6 / 4 |
| Clean sheets (last 5) | 5 | 2 |
| Matches in our dataset (2025 season) | 34 | 37 |
| Goals per game, scored / conceded (2025) | 1.53 / 1.29 | 1.24 / 1.46 |
| Points per game (2025) | 1.62 | 1.19 |
| Form rating (0-100) | 48.1 | 45.8 |
| Players unavailable | 6 | 8 |
| Model win probability | 66% | 13% |
| Head-to-head wins (last 4) | 1 | 1 |
What stands out
- Head-to-head balance (last 4): Bournemouth one win, Leeds one win, two draws — a historically tight match-up.
- Most recent meeting: Bournemouth 2-2 Leeds on 22 April 2026.
- Head-to-head goals: 5.0 per game across those meetings, with both teams scoring in all of them — a fixture that has tended to open up.
- Pre-match form ratings: Bournemouth 48.1 versus Leeds 45.8, a gap of 2.3, which aligns with the model's favourite.
- Goals outlook: A combined scoring line of 4.40, over 2.5 goals at 65% and both teams to score at 56%.
- First goal: Leans Bournemouth's way at 67%.
Sentiment and prediction
The model leans firmly towards Bournemouth at 66%, a gap of 46 percentage points to the next outcome. Bournemouth's form line and home advantage back it, the goals line points to over 2.5 goals and draw probability stays material given the head-to-head draw rate. Baseline expectation tilts Bournemouth's way, especially at Vitality Stadium.
This is a data-led read, not a certainty. The numbers are shown as they come out of the model so the basis for the call can be checked rather than assumed.
Frequently asked questions
Who is favoured to win the match: Bournemouth or Leeds?
Bournemouth, with an implied win probability of roughly 66%. The full split is 66% Bournemouth, 21% the draw and 13% Leeds.
When and where is Bournemouth vs Leeds being played?
31 October 2026 at Vitality Stadium, Bournemouth, kick-off 15:00 UTC.
What was the result of the last match between Bournemouth and Leeds?
Bournemouth 2-2 Leeds on 22 April 2026.
What is the recent form of Bournemouth and Leeds?
Bournemouth have taken 15 points from their last five (WWWWW), Leeds 6 from theirs (DDLDW). Most recently Bournemouth took a 3-0 win at home to Aston Villa and Leeds a 0-0 draw away at Sunderland.
How many goals are expected in Bournemouth vs Leeds?
The model's combined scoring line is 4.40 — 2.60 for Bournemouth and 1.80 for Leeds. It rates over 2.5 goals at 65%.
Will both teams score?
The model rates both teams to score at 56%, so its call is yes.
Who is unavailable?
Our injury feed lists six players unavailable for Bournemouth and eight for Leeds at the time of writing. Confirmed line-ups land about an hour before kick-off.