Coventry vs Sunderland: match summary, form and prediction
Our model makes Coventry the pick at 43% for Coventry vs Sunderland. Form trajectory, comparison data, head-to-head and the reasoning behind the call.
The fixture at a glance
Coventry face Sunderland on 31 October 2026 at Coventry Building Society Arena, Coventry. Coventry are the model's favourite, with a win probability of roughly 43%. This matchday 9 fixture in Premier League is listed as Coventry - Sunderland. Kick-off is 15:00 UTC.
Form analysis and trajectory
Coventry: they come in on back-to-back defeats, following two wins and one defeat before that. That is two wins, no draws and three defeats from the last five, worth 6 points. Their 2025-season record in our dataset (92 scored and 39 conceded in 43 matches, 2.14 and 0.91 per game) points to a side doing the job at both ends. That is reflected in a form rating of 42.8 out of 100, and they sit 19th on a goal difference of -9.
Sunderland: they come in on the back of a win, following one win, two draws and one defeat before that. That is two wins, two draws and one defeat from the last five, worth 8 points. It leaves them unbeaten in three. Their 2025-season record in our dataset (36 scored and 43 conceded in 35 matches, 1.03 and 1.23 per game) points to a fairly even balance between the two ends of the pitch. That is reflected in a form rating of 26.3 out of 100, and they sit 20th on a goal difference of -8.
Comparison data
| Statistic | Coventry | Sunderland |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 19th | 20th |
| Goal difference | -9 | -8 |
| Form (last 5, most recent first) | LLWWL | WDDLW |
| Points from last 5 | 6 | 8 |
| Goals scored / conceded (last 5) | 7 / 8 | 6 / 6 |
| Clean sheets (last 5) | 1 | 1 |
| Matches in our dataset (2025 season) | 43 | 35 |
| Goals per game, scored / conceded (2025) | 2.14 / 0.91 | 1.03 / 1.23 |
| Points per game (2025) | 2.12 | 1.34 |
| Form rating (0-100) | 42.8 | 26.3 |
| Players unavailable | 10 | 8 |
| Model win probability | 43% | 29% |
| Head-to-head wins (last 4) | 1 | 1 |
Key match insights
- Head-to-head balance (last 4): Coventry one win, Sunderland one win, two draws — a historically tight match-up.
- Most recent meeting: Sunderland 1-1 Coventry on 13 May 2025.
- Head-to-head goals: 3.0 per game across those meetings, with both teams scoring in three of the four — a fixture that has tended to open up.
- Pre-match form ratings: Coventry 42.8 versus Sunderland 26.3, a gap of 16.4, which aligns with the model's favourite.
- Goals outlook: A combined scoring line of 2.20, over 2.5 goals at 60% and both teams to score at 56%.
- First goal: Leans Coventry's way at 55%.
The call
The model edges towards Coventry at 43%, and 'edges' is doing real work in that sentence. Sunderland's stronger recent metrics back it, the goals line points to over 2.5 goals and draw probability stays material given the head-to-head draw rate. Baseline expectation tilts Coventry's way, especially at Coventry Building Society Arena.
This is a data-led read, not a certainty. The numbers are shown as they come out of the model so the basis for the call can be checked rather than assumed.
Frequently asked questions
Who is favoured to win the match: Coventry or Sunderland?
Coventry, with an implied win probability of roughly 43%. The full split is 43% Coventry, 28% the draw and 29% Sunderland.
When and where is Coventry vs Sunderland being played?
31 October 2026 at Coventry Building Society Arena, Coventry, kick-off 15:00 UTC.
What was the result of the last match between Coventry and Sunderland?
Sunderland 1-1 Coventry on 13 May 2025.
What is the recent form of Coventry and Sunderland?
Coventry have taken 6 points from their last five (LLWWL), Sunderland 8 from theirs (WDDLW). Most recently Coventry took a 0-1 defeat at home to Fulham and Sunderland a 3-2 win at home to Brentford.
How many goals are expected in Coventry vs Sunderland?
The model's combined scoring line is 2.20 — 1.40 for Coventry and 0.80 for Sunderland. It rates over 2.5 goals at 60%.
Will both teams score?
The model rates both teams to score at 56%, so its call is yes.
Who is unavailable?
Our injury feed lists ten players unavailable for Coventry and eight for Sunderland at the time of writing. Confirmed line-ups land about an hour before kick-off.