Liverpool vs Arsenal: match summary, form and prediction
There is barely anything between Liverpool and Arsenal on our numbers. Form trajectory, a side-by-side comparison, the head-to-head record and where the model does — and does not — commit.
Match summary
Liverpool host Arsenal on 1 November 2026 at Anfield, Liverpool. Liverpool are the model's favourite, with a win probability of roughly 37%. This matchday 9 fixture in Premier League is listed as Liverpool - Arsenal. Kick-off is 16:30 UTC.
Form analysis and trajectory
Liverpool: they come in on the back of a draw, following four wins before that. That is four wins, one draw and no defeats from the last five, worth 13 points. It leaves them unbeaten in five. Their 2026-season record in our dataset (10 scored and 3 conceded in six matches, 1.67 and 0.5 per game) points to a side built on keeping the game tight rather than winning it early. That is reflected in a form rating of 59.1 out of 100, and they sit 4th on a goal difference of +3.
Arsenal: they come in on the back of a draw, following three wins and one draw before that. That is three wins, two draws and no defeats from the last five, worth 11 points. It leaves them unbeaten in five. Their 2026-season record in our dataset (27 scored and 24 conceded in 22 matches, 1.23 and 1.09 per game) points to a fairly even balance between the two ends of the pitch. That is reflected in a form rating of 67.0 out of 100, and they sit 2nd on a goal difference of +8.
Side by side
| Statistic | Liverpool | Arsenal |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 4th | 2nd |
| Goal difference | +3 | +8 |
| Form (last 5, most recent first) | DWWWW | DWDWW |
| Points from last 5 | 13 | 11 |
| Goals scored / conceded (last 5) | 15 / 8 | 9 / 3 |
| Clean sheets (last 5) | 1 | 3 |
| Matches in our dataset (2026 season) | 6 | 22 |
| Goals per game, scored / conceded (2026) | 1.67 / 0.5 | 1.23 / 1.09 |
| Points per game (2026) | 2.33 | 1.59 |
| Form rating (0-100) | 59.1 | 67.0 |
| Players unavailable | 14 | 12 |
| Model win probability | 37% | 36% |
| Head-to-head wins (last 8) | 1 | 2 |
Key match insights
- Head-to-head balance (last 8): Liverpool one win, Arsenal two wins, five draws — a historically tight match-up.
- Most recent meeting: Arsenal 0-0 Liverpool on 08 January 2026.
- Head-to-head goals: 3.0 per game across those meetings, with both teams scoring in six of the eight — a fixture that has tended to open up.
- Pre-match form ratings: Liverpool 59.1 versus Arsenal 67.0, a gap of 7.9, which cuts against the model's favourite and is the tension in this one.
- Goals outlook: A combined scoring line of 2.60, over 2.5 goals at 56% and both teams to score at 54%.
- First goal: Leans Liverpool's way at 49%.
Sentiment and prediction
The model does not commit. Liverpool is the nominal pick at 37%, but the three results sit close to even. The goals line points to over 2.5 goals and draw probability stays material given the head-to-head draw rate. Baseline expectation tilts Liverpool's way, especially at Anfield.
This is a data-led read, not a certainty. The numbers are shown as they come out of the model so the basis for the call can be checked rather than assumed.
Frequently asked questions
Who is favoured to win the match: Liverpool or Arsenal?
Liverpool, with an implied win probability of roughly 37%. The full split is 37% Liverpool, 28% the draw and 36% Arsenal.
When and where is Liverpool vs Arsenal being played?
1 November 2026 at Anfield, Liverpool, kick-off 16:30 UTC.
What was the result of the last match between Liverpool and Arsenal?
Arsenal 0-0 Liverpool on 08 January 2026.
What is the recent form of Liverpool and Arsenal?
Liverpool have taken 13 points from their last five (DWWWW), Arsenal 11 from theirs (DWDWW). Most recently Liverpool took a 1-1 draw at home to Chelsea and Arsenal a 1-1 draw away at Fleetwood Town.
How many goals are expected in Liverpool vs Arsenal?
The model's combined scoring line is 2.60 — 1.60 for Liverpool and 1.00 for Arsenal. It rates over 2.5 goals at 56%.
Will both teams score?
The model rates both teams to score at 54%, so its call is yes.
Who is unavailable?
Our injury feed lists 14 players unavailable for Liverpool and twelve for Arsenal at the time of writing. Confirmed line-ups land about an hour before kick-off.