Newcastle vs Everton match summary and prediction — Premier League
Newcastle host Everton with a season still short of where it should be — 8th in Premier League and searching for consistency. Form, comparison data, head-to-head and our model's read.
Match summary
Everton travel to Newcastle on 2 November 2026 at St James' Park, Newcastle upon Tyne. Newcastle are the model's favourite, with a win probability of roughly 61%. This matchday 9 fixture in Premier League is listed as Newcastle - Everton. Kick-off is 20:00 UTC.
Form analysis and trajectory
Newcastle: they come in on the back of a defeat, following two wins and two defeats before that. That is two wins, no draws and three defeats from the last five, worth 6 points. Their 2025-season record in our dataset (95 scored and 86 conceded in 57 matches, 1.67 and 1.51 per game) points to a fairly even balance between the two ends of the pitch. That is reflected in a form rating of 44.5 out of 100, and they sit 8th on a goal difference of -2. For a club of Newcastle's standing, that is a season off track rather than a slow start.
Everton: they come in on the back of a win, following one win, one draw and two defeats before that. That is two wins, one draw and two defeats from the last five, worth 7 points. Their 2025-season record in our dataset (43 scored and 42 conceded in 33 matches, 1.3 and 1.27 per game) points to a fairly even balance between the two ends of the pitch. That is reflected in a form rating of 41.4 out of 100, and they sit 11th on a goal difference of -1. For a club of Everton's standing, that is a season off track rather than a slow start.
Side by side
| Statistic | Newcastle | Everton |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 8th | 11th |
| Goal difference | -2 | -1 |
| Form (last 5, most recent first) | LWLLW | WLLDW |
| Points from last 5 | 6 | 7 |
| Goals scored / conceded (last 5) | 6 / 9 | 6 / 7 |
| Clean sheets (last 5) | 1 | 1 |
| Matches in our dataset (2025 season) | 57 | 33 |
| Goals per game, scored / conceded (2025) | 1.67 / 1.51 | 1.3 / 1.27 |
| Points per game (2025) | 1.39 | 1.3 |
| Form rating (0-100) | 44.5 | 41.4 |
| Players unavailable | 10 | 2 |
| Model win probability | 61% | 17% |
| Head-to-head wins (last 8) | 2 | 4 |
Key match insights
- Head-to-head balance (last 8): Newcastle two wins, Everton four wins, two draws — an edge to Everton.
- Most recent meeting: Everton 3-1 Newcastle on 29 October 2026.
- Head-to-head goals: 2.62 per game across those meetings, with both teams scoring in four of the eight — broadly an average game for goals.
- Pre-match form ratings: Newcastle 44.5 versus Everton 41.4, a gap of 3.1, which aligns with the model's favourite.
- Big club, bad season: Newcastle are 8th with a goal difference of -2 and no settled run of results — well short of where a club of their standing expects to be.
- Availability: Newcastle carry the heavier absentee list, ten players to two.
- Goals outlook: A combined scoring line of 2.40, over 2.5 goals at 64% and both teams to score at 57%.
- First goal: Leans Newcastle's way at 64%.
The call
The model leans firmly towards Newcastle at 61%, a gap of 39 percentage points to the next outcome. The goals line points to over 2.5 goals. Baseline expectation tilts Newcastle's way, especially at St James' Park.
Everything here is model output and a reading of the form rather than a guarantee — the probabilities are published in full so the reasoning behind the call is visible.
Frequently asked questions
Who is favoured to win the match: Newcastle or Everton?
Newcastle, with an implied win probability of roughly 61%. The full split is 61% Newcastle, 22% the draw and 17% Everton.
When and where is Newcastle vs Everton being played?
2 November 2026 at St James' Park, Newcastle upon Tyne, kick-off 20:00 UTC.
What was the result of the last match between Newcastle and Everton?
Everton 3-1 Newcastle on 29 October 2026.
What is the recent form of Newcastle and Everton?
Newcastle have taken 6 points from their last five (LWLLW), Everton 7 from theirs (WLLDW). Most recently Newcastle took a 1-3 defeat away at Everton and Everton a 3-1 win at home to Newcastle.
How many goals are expected in Newcastle vs Everton?
The model's combined scoring line is 2.40 — 1.40 for Newcastle and 1.00 for Everton. It rates over 2.5 goals at 64%.
Will both teams score?
The model rates both teams to score at 57%, so its call is yes.
Who is unavailable?
Our injury feed lists ten players unavailable for Newcastle and two for Everton at the time of writing. Confirmed line-ups land about an hour before kick-off.