Brighton vs Brentford: the numbers, the form and our prediction
Our model makes Brighton the pick at 52% for Brighton vs Brentford. Form trajectory, comparison data, head-to-head and the reasoning behind the call.
The fixture at a glance
Brighton face Brentford on 8 November 2026 at Amex Stadium, Brighton. Brighton are the model's favourite, with a win probability of roughly 52%. This matchday 10 fixture in Premier League is listed as Brighton - Brentford. Kick-off is 14:00 UTC.
Recent form and trajectory
Brighton: they come in on the back of a win, following one win, two draws and one defeat before that. That is two wins, two draws and one defeat from the last five, worth 8 points. Their 2026-season record in our dataset (14 scored and 5 conceded in seven matches, 2.0 and 0.71 per game) points to a side doing the job at both ends. That is reflected in a form rating of 69.2 out of 100, and they sit 3rd on a goal difference of +17.
Brentford: they come in on the back of a win, following two draws and two defeats before that. That is one win, two draws and two defeats from the last five, worth 5 points. Their 2026-season record in our dataset (10 scored and 8 conceded in six matches, 1.67 and 1.33 per game) points to a fairly even balance between the two ends of the pitch. That is reflected in a form rating of 53.4 out of 100, and they sit 6th on a goal difference of +7.
Comparison data
| Statistic | Brighton | Brentford |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 3rd | 6th |
| Goal difference | +17 | +7 |
| Form (last 5, most recent first) | WDLDW | WLDLD |
| Points from last 5 | 8 | 5 |
| Goals scored / conceded (last 5) | 8 / 4 | 8 / 8 |
| Clean sheets (last 5) | 3 | 1 |
| Matches in our dataset (2026 season) | 7 | 6 |
| Goals per game, scored / conceded (2026) | 2.0 / 0.71 | 1.67 / 1.33 |
| Points per game (2026) | 1.71 | 1.5 |
| Form rating (0-100) | 69.2 | 53.4 |
| Players unavailable | 0 | 0 |
| Model win probability | 52% | 23% |
| Head-to-head wins (last 8) | 3 | 2 |
What stands out
- Head-to-head balance (last 8): Brighton three wins, Brentford two wins, three draws — a historically tight match-up.
- Most recent meeting: Brentford 0-2 Brighton on 21 February 2026.
- Head-to-head goals: 2.75 per game across those meetings, with both teams scoring in four of the eight — broadly an average game for goals.
- Pre-match form ratings: Brighton 69.2 versus Brentford 53.4, a gap of 15.8, which aligns with the model's favourite.
- Availability: No absentees listed for either side in our injury feed at the time of writing.
- Goals outlook: A combined scoring line of 3.40, over 2.5 goals at 63% and both teams to score at 58%.
- First goal: Leans Brighton's way at 60%.
The call
The model tilts to Brighton at 52%, without enough room to treat it as a formality. The goals line points to over 2.5 goals and draw probability stays material given the head-to-head draw rate. Baseline expectation tilts Brighton's way, especially at Amex Stadium.
Everything here is model output and a reading of the form rather than a guarantee — the probabilities are published in full so the reasoning behind the call is visible.
Frequently asked questions
Who is favoured to win the match: Brighton or Brentford?
Brighton, with an implied win probability of roughly 52%. The full split is 52% Brighton, 26% the draw and 23% Brentford.
When and where is Brighton vs Brentford being played?
8 November 2026 at Amex Stadium, Brighton, kick-off 14:00 UTC.
What was the result of the last match between Brighton and Brentford?
Brentford 0-2 Brighton on 21 February 2026.
What is the recent form of Brighton and Brentford?
Brighton have taken 8 points from their last five (WDLDW), Brentford 5 from theirs (WLDLD). Most recently Brighton took a 1-0 win away at Manchester City and Brentford a 2-0 win at home to Nottingham Forest.
How many goals are expected in Brighton vs Brentford?
The model's combined scoring line is 3.40 — 1.60 for Brighton and 1.80 for Brentford. It rates over 2.5 goals at 63%.
Will both teams score?
The model rates both teams to score at 58%, so its call is yes.