Fulham vs Newcastle: match summary, form and prediction
Newcastle travel to Fulham needing a result to steady a season that has drifted — 13th and still looking for rhythm. Form, comparison data and the model's read, below.
Match summary
Newcastle travel to Fulham on 7 November 2026 at Craven Cottage, London. Fulham are the model's favourite, with a win probability of roughly 43%. This matchday 10 fixture in Premier League is listed as Fulham - Newcastle. Kick-off is 15:00 UTC.
Form analysis and trajectory
Fulham: they come in on the back of a draw, following two wins and two defeats before that. That is two wins, one draw and two defeats from the last five, worth 7 points. Their 2026-season record in our dataset (7 scored and 7 conceded in six matches, 1.17 and 1.17 per game) points to a fairly even balance between the two ends of the pitch. That is reflected in a form rating of 51.2 out of 100, and they sit 15th on a goal difference of -2.
Newcastle: they come in on back-to-back defeats, following one win and two defeats before that. That is one win, no draws and four defeats from the last five, worth 3 points. Their 2026-season record in our dataset (7 scored and 10 conceded in six matches, 1.17 and 1.67 per game) points to a fairly even balance between the two ends of the pitch. That is reflected in a form rating of 44.2 out of 100, and they sit 13th on a goal difference of -3. For a club of Newcastle's standing, that is a season off track rather than a slow start.
Comparison data
| Statistic | Fulham | Newcastle |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 15th | 13th |
| Goal difference | -2 | -3 |
| Form (last 5, most recent first) | DLWWL | LLWLL |
| Points from last 5 | 7 | 3 |
| Goals scored / conceded (last 5) | 4 / 4 | 4 / 9 |
| Clean sheets (last 5) | 2 | 1 |
| Matches in our dataset (2026 season) | 6 | 6 |
| Goals per game, scored / conceded (2026) | 1.17 / 1.17 | 1.17 / 1.67 |
| Points per game (2026) | 1.33 | 1.17 |
| Form rating (0-100) | 51.2 | 44.2 |
| Players unavailable | 0 | 0 |
| Model win probability | 43% | 32% |
| Head-to-head wins (last 8) | 3 | 5 |
What stands out
- Head-to-head balance (last 8): Fulham three wins, Newcastle five wins, none draws — an edge to Newcastle.
- Most recent meeting: Fulham 2-0 Newcastle on 24 May 2026.
- Head-to-head goals: 2.5 per game across those meetings, with both teams scoring in four of the eight — broadly an average game for goals.
- Pre-match form ratings: Fulham 51.2 versus Newcastle 44.2, a gap of 6.9, which aligns with the model's favourite.
- Big club, bad season: Newcastle are 13th with a goal difference of -3 and no settled run of results — well short of where a club of their standing expects to be.
- Availability: No absentees listed for either side in our injury feed at the time of writing.
- Goals outlook: A combined scoring line of 2.00, over 2.5 goals at 56% and both teams to score at 54%.
- First goal: Leans Fulham's way at 50%.
The call
The model edges towards Fulham at 43%, and 'edges' is doing real work in that sentence. Fulham's form line and home advantage back it and the goals line points to over 2.5 goals. Baseline expectation tilts Fulham's way, especially at Craven Cottage.
This is a data-led read, not a certainty. The numbers are shown as they come out of the model so the basis for the call can be checked rather than assumed.
Frequently asked questions
Who is favoured to win the match: Fulham or Newcastle?
Fulham, with an implied win probability of roughly 43%. The full split is 43% Fulham, 25% the draw and 32% Newcastle.
When and where is Fulham vs Newcastle being played?
7 November 2026 at Craven Cottage, London, kick-off 15:00 UTC.
What was the result of the last match between Fulham and Newcastle?
Fulham 2-0 Newcastle on 24 May 2026.
What is the recent form of Fulham and Newcastle?
Fulham have taken 7 points from their last five (DLWWL), Newcastle 3 from theirs (LLWLL). Most recently Fulham took a 1-1 draw away at Aston Villa and Newcastle a 0-1 defeat at home to Everton.
How many goals are expected in Fulham vs Newcastle?
The model's combined scoring line is 2.00 — 1.00 for Fulham and 1.00 for Newcastle. It rates over 2.5 goals at 56%.
Will both teams score?
The model rates both teams to score at 54%, so its call is yes.