Nottingham Forest vs Manchester City — form, head-to-head and match prediction
Our model makes Manchester City the pick at 51% for Nottingham Forest vs Manchester City. Form trajectory, comparison data, head-to-head and the reasoning behind the call.
Match summary
Manchester City travel to Nottingham Forest on 7 November 2026 at City Ground, Nottingham. Manchester City are the model's favourite, with a win probability of roughly 51%. This matchday 10 fixture in Premier League is listed as Nottingham Forest - Manchester City. Kick-off is 17:30 UTC.
Form analysis and trajectory
Nottingham Forest: they come in on the back of a defeat, following one draw and three defeats before that. That is no wins, one draw and four defeats from the last five, worth 1 points. It leaves them winless in five. Their 2025-season record in our dataset (70 scored and 63 conceded in 49 matches, 1.43 and 1.29 per game) points to a fairly even balance between the two ends of the pitch. That is reflected in a form rating of 26.8 out of 100, and they sit 19th on a goal difference of -6.
Manchester City: they come in on the back of a defeat, following two wins, one draw and one defeat before that. That is two wins, one draw and two defeats from the last five, worth 7 points. It leaves them three games without a win. Their 2025-season record in our dataset (127 scored and 53 conceded in 59 matches, 2.15 and 0.9 per game) points to a side doing the job at both ends. That is reflected in a form rating of 57.5 out of 100, and they sit 2nd on a goal difference of +10.
Side by side
| Statistic | Nottingham Forest | Manchester City |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 19th | 2nd |
| Goal difference | -6 | +10 |
| Form (last 5, most recent first) | LDLLL | LDLWW |
| Points from last 5 | 1 | 7 |
| Goals scored / conceded (last 5) | 2 / 8 | 11 / 8 |
| Clean sheets (last 5) | 0 | 0 |
| Matches in our dataset (2025 season) | 49 | 59 |
| Goals per game, scored / conceded (2025) | 1.43 / 1.29 | 2.15 / 0.9 |
| Points per game (2025) | 1.39 | 2.15 |
| Form rating (0-100) | 26.8 | 57.5 |
| Players unavailable | 0 | 0 |
| Model win probability | 20% | 51% |
| Head-to-head wins (last 7) | 1 | 4 |
What stands out
- Head-to-head balance (last 7): Nottingham Forest one win, Manchester City four wins, two draws — an edge to Manchester City.
- Most recent meeting: Manchester City 2-2 Nottingham Forest on 04 March 2026.
- Head-to-head goals: 2.86 per game across those meetings, with both teams scoring in two of the seven — broadly an average game for goals.
- Pre-match form ratings: Nottingham Forest 26.8 versus Manchester City 57.5, a gap of 30.7, which aligns with the model's favourite.
- Table gap: 17 places separate them, the kind of margin that usually shows in the first twenty minutes.
- Availability: No absentees listed for either side in our injury feed at the time of writing.
- Goals outlook: A combined scoring line of 1.80, over 2.5 goals at 50% and both teams to score at 51%.
- First goal: Leans Manchester City's way at 57%.
The call
The model tilts to Manchester City at 51%, without enough room to treat it as a formality. The goals line points to over 2.5 goals.
This is a data-led read, not a certainty. The numbers are shown as they come out of the model so the basis for the call can be checked rather than assumed.
Frequently asked questions
Who is favoured to win the match: Nottingham Forest or Manchester City?
Manchester City, with an implied win probability of roughly 51%. The full split is 20% Nottingham Forest, 28% the draw and 51% Manchester City.
When and where is Nottingham Forest vs Manchester City being played?
7 November 2026 at City Ground, Nottingham, kick-off 17:30 UTC.
What was the result of the last match between Nottingham Forest and Manchester City?
Manchester City 2-2 Nottingham Forest on 04 March 2026.
What is the recent form of Nottingham Forest and Manchester City?
Nottingham Forest have taken 1 points from their last five (LDLLL), Manchester City 7 from theirs (LDLWW). Most recently Nottingham Forest took a 0-2 defeat away at Brentford and Manchester City a 0-1 defeat at home to Brighton.
How many goals are expected in Nottingham Forest vs Manchester City?
The model's combined scoring line is 1.80 — 0.60 for Nottingham Forest and 1.20 for Manchester City. It rates over 2.5 goals at 50%.
Will both teams score?
The model rates both teams to score at 51%, so its call is yes.