Sunderland vs Chelsea — form, head-to-head and match prediction
Our model makes Chelsea the pick at 43% for Sunderland vs Chelsea. Form trajectory, comparison data, head-to-head and the reasoning behind the call.
Match summary
Sunderland host Chelsea on 8 November 2026 at Stadium of Light, Sunderland. Chelsea are the model's favourite, with a win probability of roughly 43%. This matchday 10 fixture in Premier League is listed as Sunderland - Chelsea. Kick-off is 14:00 UTC.
Form analysis and trajectory
Sunderland: they come in on the back of a defeat, following one win, two draws and one defeat before that. That is one win, two draws and two defeats from the last five, worth 5 points. Their 2026-season record in our dataset (7 scored and 11 conceded in eight matches, 0.88 and 1.38 per game) underlines how hard they have found it to score. That is reflected in a form rating of 25.8 out of 100, and they sit 20th on a goal difference of -10.
Chelsea: they come in on the back of a win, following two wins, one draw and one defeat before that. That is three wins, one draw and one defeat from the last five, worth 10 points. Their 2026-season record in our dataset (14 scored and 10 conceded in seven matches, 2.0 and 1.43 per game) points to strong attacking output with occasional defensive lapses. That is reflected in a form rating of 56.0 out of 100, and they sit 4th on a goal difference of +4.
Comparison data
| Statistic | Sunderland | Chelsea |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 20th | 4th |
| Goal difference | -10 | +4 |
| Form (last 5, most recent first) | LWDDL | WDLWW |
| Points from last 5 | 5 | 10 |
| Goals scored / conceded (last 5) | 5 / 8 | 10 / 4 |
| Clean sheets (last 5) | 1 | 2 |
| Matches in our dataset (2026 season) | 8 | 7 |
| Goals per game, scored / conceded (2026) | 0.88 / 1.38 | 2.0 / 1.43 |
| Points per game (2026) | 1.12 | 1.57 |
| Form rating (0-100) | 25.8 | 56.0 |
| Players unavailable | 0 | 0 |
| Model win probability | 28% | 43% |
| Head-to-head wins (last 2) | 2 | 0 |
Key match insights
- Head-to-head balance (last 2): Sunderland two wins, Chelsea none wins, none draws — an edge to Sunderland.
- Most recent meeting: Sunderland 2-1 Chelsea on 24 May 2026.
- Head-to-head goals: 3.0 per game across those meetings, with both teams scoring in all of them — a fixture that has tended to open up.
- Pre-match form ratings: Sunderland 25.8 versus Chelsea 56.0, a gap of 30.2, which aligns with the model's favourite.
- Table gap: 16 places separate them, the kind of margin that usually shows in the first twenty minutes.
- Availability: No absentees listed for either side in our injury feed at the time of writing.
- Goals outlook: A combined scoring line of 2.40, over 2.5 goals at 58% and both teams to score at 57%.
- First goal: Leans Chelsea's way at 51%.
Sentiment and prediction
The model edges towards Chelsea at 43%, and 'edges' is doing real work in that sentence. The goals line points to over 2.5 goals.
Everything here is model output and a reading of the form rather than a guarantee — the probabilities are published in full so the reasoning behind the call is visible.
Frequently asked questions
Who is favoured to win the match: Sunderland or Chelsea?
Chelsea, with an implied win probability of roughly 43%. The full split is 28% Sunderland, 28% the draw and 43% Chelsea.
When and where is Sunderland vs Chelsea being played?
8 November 2026 at Stadium of Light, Sunderland, kick-off 14:00 UTC.
What was the result of the last match between Sunderland and Chelsea?
Sunderland 2-1 Chelsea on 24 May 2026.
What is the recent form of Sunderland and Chelsea?
Sunderland have taken 5 points from their last five (LWDDL), Chelsea 10 from theirs (WDLWW). Most recently Sunderland took a 1-3 defeat away at Coventry and Chelsea a 2-0 win at home to Manchester United.
How many goals are expected in Sunderland vs Chelsea?
The model's combined scoring line is 2.40 — 1.00 for Sunderland and 1.40 for Chelsea. It rates over 2.5 goals at 58%.
Will both teams score?
The model rates both teams to score at 57%, so its call is yes.