Union St. Gilloise vs Genk match summary and prediction — Jupiler Pro League
Our model makes Union St. Gilloise the pick at 70% for Union St. Gilloise vs Genk. Form trajectory, comparison data, head-to-head and the reasoning behind the call.
Match summary
Genk travel to Union St. Gilloise on 8 November 2026 at Stade Joseph Marien, Brussels. Union St. Gilloise are the model's favourite, with a win probability of roughly 70%. This matchday 11 fixture in Jupiler Pro League is listed as Union St. Gilloise - Genk. Kick-off is 17:30 UTC.
Form analysis and trajectory
Union St. Gilloise: they come in on a four-match winning sequence, following one draw before that. That is four wins, one draw and no defeats from the last five, worth 13 points. It leaves them unbeaten in five. Their 2025-season record in our dataset (45 scored and 48 conceded in 33 matches, 1.36 and 1.45 per game) points to a fairly even balance between the two ends of the pitch. That is reflected in a form rating of 73.8 out of 100, and they sit 2nd on a goal difference of +22.
Genk: they come in on the back of a defeat, following three wins and one defeat before that. That is three wins, no draws and two defeats from the last five, worth 9 points. Their 2025-season record in our dataset (55 scored and 43 conceded in 33 matches, 1.67 and 1.3 per game) points to a fairly even balance between the two ends of the pitch. That is reflected in a form rating of 49.3 out of 100, and they sit 6th on a goal difference of +4.
Comparison data
| Statistic | Union St. Gilloise | Genk |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 2nd | 6th |
| Goal difference | +22 | +4 |
| Form (last 5, most recent first) | WWWWD | LWWWL |
| Points from last 5 | 13 | 9 |
| Goals scored / conceded (last 5) | 15 / 4 | 8 / 4 |
| Clean sheets (last 5) | 2 | 2 |
| Matches in our dataset (2025 season) | 33 | 33 |
| Goals per game, scored / conceded (2025) | 1.36 / 1.45 | 1.67 / 1.3 |
| Points per game (2025) | 1.7 | 1.7 |
| Form rating (0-100) | 73.8 | 49.3 |
| Players unavailable | 0 | 0 |
| Model win probability | 70% | 12% |
Key match insights
- Pre-match form ratings: Union St. Gilloise 73.8 versus Genk 49.3, a gap of 24.5, which aligns with the model's favourite.
- Availability: No absentees listed for either side in our injury feed at the time of writing.
- Goals outlook: A combined scoring line of 4.60, over 2.5 goals at 69% and both teams to score at 63%.
- First goal: Leans Union St. Gilloise's way at 69%.
The call
The model leans firmly towards Union St. Gilloise at 70%, a gap of 53 percentage points to the next outcome. The goals line points to over 2.5 goals. Baseline expectation tilts Union St. Gilloise's way, especially at Stade Joseph Marien.
Everything here is model output and a reading of the form rather than a guarantee — the probabilities are published in full so the reasoning behind the call is visible.
Frequently asked questions
Who is favoured to win the match: Union St. Gilloise or Genk?
Union St. Gilloise, with an implied win probability of roughly 70%. The full split is 70% Union St. Gilloise, 17% the draw and 12% Genk.
When and where is Union St. Gilloise vs Genk being played?
8 November 2026 at Stade Joseph Marien, Brussels, kick-off 17:30 UTC.
What was the result of the last match between Union St. Gilloise and Genk?
Union St. Gilloise 2-1 Genk on 07 March 2026.
What is the recent form of Union St. Gilloise and Genk?
Union St. Gilloise have taken 13 points from their last five (WWWWD), Genk 9 from theirs (LWWWL). Most recently Union St. Gilloise took a 2-1 win away at SK Beveren and Genk a 0-1 defeat away at KV Mechelen.
How many goals are expected in Union St. Gilloise vs Genk?
The model's combined scoring line is 4.60 — 3.80 for Union St. Gilloise and 0.80 for Genk. It rates over 2.5 goals at 69%.
Will both teams score?
The model rates both teams to score at 63%, so its call is yes.