AS Eupen vs Excelsior Virton: the numbers, the form and our prediction
Our model makes AS Eupen the pick at 45% for AS Eupen vs Excelsior Virton. Form trajectory, comparison data, head-to-head and the reasoning behind the call.
Match summary
AS Eupen host Excelsior Virton on 1 November 2026 at Kehrweg Stadium, Eupen. AS Eupen are the model's favourite, with a win probability of roughly 45%. This matchday 9 fixture in Challenger Pro League is listed as AS Eupen - Excelsior Virton. Kick-off is 18:15 UTC.
Recent form and trajectory
AS Eupen: they come in on back-to-back defeats, following three wins before that. That is three wins, no draws and two defeats from the last five, worth 9 points. Across those five they scored eight and conceded eight, with two clean sheets. That is reflected in a form rating of 66.8 out of 100, and they sit 3rd on a goal difference of +7.
Excelsior Virton: they come in on three defeats in a row, following one win and one draw before that. That is one win, one draw and three defeats from the last five, worth 4 points. It leaves them three games without a win. Across those five they scored eight and conceded ten, with one clean sheet. That is reflected in a form rating of 39.1 out of 100, and they sit 8th on a goal difference of +3.
Side by side
| Statistic | AS Eupen | Excelsior Virton |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 3rd | 8th |
| Goal difference | +7 | +3 |
| Form (last 5, most recent first) | LLWWW | LLLWD |
| Points from last 5 | 9 | 4 |
| Goals scored / conceded (last 5) | 8 / 8 | 8 / 10 |
| Clean sheets (last 5) | 2 | 1 |
| Form rating (0-100) | 66.8 | 39.1 |
| Players unavailable | 0 | 0 |
| Model win probability | 45% | 29% |
What stands out
- Pre-match form ratings: AS Eupen 66.8 versus Excelsior Virton 39.1, a gap of 27.7, which aligns with the model's favourite.
- Availability: No absentees listed for either side in our injury feed at the time of writing.
- Goals outlook: A combined scoring line of 3.33, over 2.5 goals at 54% and both teams to score at 56%.
- First goal: Leans AS Eupen's way at 53%.
The call
The model edges towards AS Eupen at 45%, and 'edges' is doing real work in that sentence. The goals line points to over 2.5 goals. Baseline expectation tilts AS Eupen's way, especially at Kehrweg Stadium.
This is a data-led read, not a certainty. The numbers are shown as they come out of the model so the basis for the call can be checked rather than assumed.
Frequently asked questions
Who is favoured to win the match: AS Eupen or Excelsior Virton?
AS Eupen, with an implied win probability of roughly 45%. The full split is 45% AS Eupen, 26% the draw and 29% Excelsior Virton.
When and where is AS Eupen vs Excelsior Virton being played?
1 November 2026 at Kehrweg Stadium, Eupen, kick-off 18:15 UTC.
Have AS Eupen and Excelsior Virton met before?
Our records hold no previous meeting between the two sides.
What is the recent form of AS Eupen and Excelsior Virton?
AS Eupen have taken 9 points from their last five (LLWWW), Excelsior Virton 4 from theirs (LLLWD). Most recently AS Eupen took a 1-2 defeat at home to Beerschot VA and Excelsior Virton a 1-3 defeat away at Seraing United.
How many goals are expected in AS Eupen vs Excelsior Virton?
The model's combined scoring line is 3.33 — 1.33 for AS Eupen and 2.00 for Excelsior Virton. It rates over 2.5 goals at 54%.
Will both teams score?
The model rates both teams to score at 56%, so its call is yes.