Sparta Praha vs FK Jablonec: the numbers, the form and our prediction
Our model makes Sparta Praha the pick at 64% for Sparta Praha vs FK Jablonec. Form trajectory, comparison data, head-to-head and the reasoning behind the call.
The fixture at a glance
Sparta Praha face FK Jablonec on 12 September 2026 at epet ARENA, Prague. Sparta Praha are the model's favourite, with a win probability of roughly 64%. This matchday 8 fixture in Czech Liga is listed as Sparta Praha - FK Jablonec. Kick-off is 16:00 UTC.
Form analysis and trajectory
Sparta Praha: they come in on the back of a win, following two wins and two defeats before that. That is three wins, no draws and two defeats from the last five, worth 9 points. Their 2025-season record in our dataset (33 scored and 17 conceded in 17 matches, 1.94 and 1.0 per game) points to a side doing the job at both ends. That is reflected in a form rating of 45.2 out of 100, and they sit 10th on a goal difference of +1.
FK Jablonec: they come in on the back of a win, following one win, one draw and two defeats before that. That is two wins, one draw and two defeats from the last five, worth 7 points. Their 2025-season record in our dataset (16 scored and 27 conceded in 15 matches, 1.07 and 1.8 per game) points to a fairly even balance between the two ends of the pitch. That is reflected in a form rating of 49.3 out of 100, and they sit 5th on a goal difference of +4.
Side by side
| Statistic | Sparta Praha | FK Jablonec |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 10th | 5th |
| Goal difference | +1 | +4 |
| Form (last 5, most recent first) | WLLWW | WLDLW |
| Points from last 5 | 9 | 7 |
| Goals scored / conceded (last 5) | 14 / 6 | 6 / 5 |
| Clean sheets (last 5) | 2 | 2 |
| Matches in our dataset (2025 season) | 17 | 15 |
| Goals per game, scored / conceded (2025) | 1.94 / 1.0 | 1.07 / 1.8 |
| Points per game (2025) | 2.06 | 1.13 |
| Form rating (0-100) | 45.2 | 49.3 |
| Players unavailable | 0 | 0 |
| Model win probability | 64% | 6% |
| Head-to-head wins (last 2) | 2 | 0 |
Key match insights
- Head-to-head balance (last 2): Sparta Praha two wins, FK Jablonec none wins, none draws — an edge to Sparta Praha.
- Most recent meeting: Sparta Praha 2-0 FK Jablonec on 03 May 2026.
- Head-to-head goals: 3.0 per game across those meetings, with both teams scoring in one of the two — a fixture that has tended to open up.
- Pre-match form ratings: Sparta Praha 45.2 versus FK Jablonec 49.3, a gap of 4.1, which cuts against the model's favourite and is the tension in this one.
- Availability: No absentees listed for either side in our injury feed at the time of writing.
- Goals outlook: A combined scoring line of 2.60, over 2.5 goals at 17% and both teams to score at 29%.
- First goal: Leans Sparta Praha's way at 77%.
The call
The model leans firmly towards Sparta Praha at 64%, a gap of 34 percentage points to the next outcome. The goals line points to under 2.5 goals. Baseline expectation tilts Sparta Praha's way, especially at epet ARENA.
This is a data-led read, not a certainty. The numbers are shown as they come out of the model so the basis for the call can be checked rather than assumed.
Frequently asked questions
Who is favoured to win the match: Sparta Praha or FK Jablonec?
Sparta Praha, with an implied win probability of roughly 64%. The full split is 64% Sparta Praha, 30% the draw and 6% FK Jablonec.
When and where is Sparta Praha vs FK Jablonec being played?
12 September 2026 at epet ARENA, Prague, kick-off 16:00 UTC.
What was the result of the last match between Sparta Praha and FK Jablonec?
Sparta Praha 2-0 FK Jablonec on 03 May 2026.
What is the recent form of Sparta Praha and FK Jablonec?
Sparta Praha have taken 9 points from their last five (WLLWW), FK Jablonec 7 from theirs (WLDLW). Most recently Sparta Praha took a 5-0 win away at Viktoria Žižkov and FK Jablonec a 3-0 win at home to Baník Ostrava.
How many goals are expected in Sparta Praha vs FK Jablonec?
The model's combined scoring line is 2.60 — 1.60 for Sparta Praha and 1.00 for FK Jablonec. It rates over 2.5 goals at 17%.
Will both teams score?
The model rates both teams to score at 29%, so its call is no.