Rodina Moskva vs FC Krasnodar — form, head-to-head and match prediction
Our model makes FC Krasnodar the pick at 47% for Rodina Moskva vs FC Krasnodar. Form trajectory, comparison data, head-to-head and the reasoning behind the call.
The fixture at a glance
Rodina Moskva host FC Krasnodar on 31 October 2026 at Arena Khimki, Khimki. FC Krasnodar are the model's favourite, with a win probability of roughly 47%. This matchday 13 fixture in Premier League is listed as Rodina Moskva - FC Krasnodar. Kick-off is 16:45 UTC.
Recent form and trajectory
Rodina Moskva: they come in on the back of a defeat, following one win, one draw and two defeats before that. That is one win, one draw and three defeats from the last five, worth 4 points. Their 2026-season record in our dataset (13 scored and 14 conceded in eight matches, 1.62 and 1.75 per game) points to a fairly even balance between the two ends of the pitch. That is reflected in a form rating of 38.2 out of 100, and they sit 15th on a goal difference of -14.
FC Krasnodar: they come in on the back of a win, following two draws and two defeats before that. That is one win, two draws and two defeats from the last five, worth 5 points. It leaves them unbeaten in three. Their 2026-season record in our dataset (15 scored and 10 conceded in eight matches, 1.88 and 1.25 per game) points to strong attacking output with occasional defensive lapses. That is reflected in a form rating of 39.8 out of 100, and they sit 4th on a goal difference of +6.
Side by side
| Statistic | Rodina Moskva | FC Krasnodar |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 15th | 4th |
| Goal difference | -14 | +6 |
| Form (last 5, most recent first) | LWDLL | WDDLL |
| Points from last 5 | 4 | 5 |
| Goals scored / conceded (last 5) | 6 / 11 | 8 / 10 |
| Clean sheets (last 5) | 1 | 0 |
| Matches in our dataset (2026 season) | 8 | 8 |
| Goals per game, scored / conceded (2026) | 1.62 / 1.75 | 1.88 / 1.25 |
| Points per game (2026) | 1.12 | 2.0 |
| Form rating (0-100) | 38.2 | 39.8 |
| Players unavailable | 2 | 4 |
| Model win probability | 24% | 47% |
Key match insights
- Pre-match form ratings: Rodina Moskva 38.2 versus FC Krasnodar 39.8, a gap of 1.7, which aligns with the model's favourite.
- Table gap: Eleven places separate them, the kind of margin that usually shows in the first twenty minutes.
- Goals outlook: A combined scoring line of 2.20, over 2.5 goals at 50% and both teams to score at 58%.
- First goal: Leans FC Krasnodar's way at 54%.
Sentiment and prediction
The model tilts to FC Krasnodar at 47%, without enough room to treat it as a formality. FC Krasnodar's stronger recent metrics back it and the goals line points to under 2.5 goals.
Everything here is model output and a reading of the form rather than a guarantee — the probabilities are published in full so the reasoning behind the call is visible.
Frequently asked questions
Who is favoured to win the match: Rodina Moskva or FC Krasnodar?
FC Krasnodar, with an implied win probability of roughly 47%. The full split is 24% Rodina Moskva, 30% the draw and 47% FC Krasnodar.
When and where is Rodina Moskva vs FC Krasnodar being played?
31 October 2026 at Arena Khimki, Khimki, kick-off 16:45 UTC.
Have Rodina Moskva and FC Krasnodar met before?
Our records hold no previous meeting between the two sides.
What is the recent form of Rodina Moskva and FC Krasnodar?
Rodina Moskva have taken 4 points from their last five (LWDLL), FC Krasnodar 5 from theirs (WDDLL). Most recently Rodina Moskva took a 1-2 defeat away at FC Orenburg and FC Krasnodar a 2-1 win at home to Dynamo.
How many goals are expected in Rodina Moskva vs FC Krasnodar?
The model's combined scoring line is 2.20 — 0.80 for Rodina Moskva and 1.40 for FC Krasnodar. It rates over 2.5 goals at 50%.
Will both teams score?
The model rates both teams to score at 58%, so its call is yes.
Who is unavailable?
Our injury feed lists two players unavailable for Rodina Moskva and four for FC Krasnodar at the time of writing. Confirmed line-ups land about an hour before kick-off.