Rubin vs Fakel — form, head-to-head and match prediction
Our model makes Rubin the pick at 43% for Rubin vs Fakel. Form trajectory, comparison data, head-to-head and the reasoning behind the call.
The fixture at a glance
Rubin face Fakel on 31 October 2026 at Ak Bars Arena, Kazan. Rubin are the model's favourite, with a win probability of roughly 43%. This matchday 13 fixture in Premier League is listed as Rubin - Fakel. Kick-off is 12:15 UTC.
Form analysis and trajectory
Rubin: they come in on five defeats in a row. That is no wins, no draws and five defeats from the last five, worth 0 points. It leaves them winless in five. Their 2026-season record in our dataset (7 scored and 20 conceded in ten matches, 0.7 and 2.0 per game) underlines issues at both ends. That is reflected in a form rating of 30.2 out of 100, and they sit 11th on a goal difference of -6.
Fakel: they come in on the back of a draw, following two wins and two defeats before that. That is two wins, one draw and two defeats from the last five, worth 7 points. Their 2026-season record in our dataset (8 scored and 12 conceded in nine matches, 0.89 and 1.33 per game) underlines how hard they have found it to score. That is reflected in a form rating of 35.3 out of 100, and they sit 16th on a goal difference of -12.
Comparison data
| Statistic | Rubin | Fakel |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 11th | 16th |
| Goal difference | -6 | -12 |
| Form (last 5, most recent first) | LLLLL | DLWWL |
| Points from last 5 | 0 | 7 |
| Goals scored / conceded (last 5) | 1 / 12 | 4 / 7 |
| Clean sheets (last 5) | 0 | 2 |
| Matches in our dataset (2026 season) | 10 | 9 |
| Goals per game, scored / conceded (2026) | 0.7 / 2.0 | 0.89 / 1.33 |
| Points per game (2026) | 0.7 | 0.78 |
| Form rating (0-100) | 30.2 | 35.3 |
| Players unavailable | 6 | 2 |
| Model win probability | 43% | 29% |
Key match insights
- Pre-match form ratings: Rubin 30.2 versus Fakel 35.3, a gap of 5.2, which cuts against the model's favourite and is the tension in this one.
- Availability: Rubin carry the heavier absentee list, six players to two.
- Goals outlook: A combined scoring line of 1.40, over 2.5 goals at 49% and both teams to score at 53%.
- First goal: Leans Rubin's way at 53%.
The call
The model edges towards Rubin at 43%, and 'edges' is doing real work in that sentence. Fakel's stronger recent metrics back it and the goals line points to under 2.5 goals. Baseline expectation tilts Rubin's way, especially at Ak Bars Arena.
This is a data-led read, not a certainty. The numbers are shown as they come out of the model so the basis for the call can be checked rather than assumed.
Frequently asked questions
Who is favoured to win the match: Rubin or Fakel?
Rubin, with an implied win probability of roughly 43%. The full split is 43% Rubin, 28% the draw and 29% Fakel.
When and where is Rubin vs Fakel being played?
31 October 2026 at Ak Bars Arena, Kazan, kick-off 12:15 UTC.
Have Rubin and Fakel met before?
Our records hold no previous meeting between the two sides.
What is the recent form of Rubin and Fakel?
Rubin have taken 0 points from their last five (LLLLL), Fakel 7 from theirs (DLWWL). Most recently Rubin took a 0-1 defeat away at Spartak Moscow and Fakel a 0-0 draw at home to Akhmat.
How many goals are expected in Rubin vs Fakel?
The model's combined scoring line is 1.40 — 0.40 for Rubin and 1.00 for Fakel. It rates over 2.5 goals at 49%.
Will both teams score?
The model rates both teams to score at 53%, so its call is yes.
Who is unavailable?
Our injury feed lists six players unavailable for Rubin and two for Fakel at the time of writing. Confirmed line-ups land about an hour before kick-off.