Akhmat vs Rodina Moskva: match summary, form and prediction
Our model makes Akhmat the pick at 50% for Akhmat vs Rodina Moskva. Form trajectory, comparison data, head-to-head and the reasoning behind the call.
The fixture at a glance
Akhmat face Rodina Moskva on 7 November 2026 at Akhmat-Arena, Groznyj. Akhmat are the model's favourite, with a win probability of roughly 50%. This matchday 14 fixture in Premier League is listed as Akhmat - Rodina Moskva. Kick-off is 13:30 UTC.
Form analysis and trajectory
Akhmat: they come in on the back of a defeat, following one draw and three defeats before that. That is no wins, one draw and four defeats from the last five, worth 1 points. It leaves them winless in five. Their 2026-season record in our dataset (8 scored and 15 conceded in ten matches, 0.8 and 1.5 per game) underlines how hard they have found it to score. That is reflected in a form rating of 27.3 out of 100, and they sit 15th on a goal difference of -4.
Rodina Moskva: they come in on the back of a win, following one win, one draw and two defeats before that. That is two wins, one draw and two defeats from the last five, worth 7 points. Their 2026-season record in our dataset (15 scored and 15 conceded in nine matches, 1.67 and 1.67 per game) points to a fairly even balance between the two ends of the pitch. That is reflected in a form rating of 48.4 out of 100, and they sit 12th on a goal difference of -13.
Comparison data
| Statistic | Akhmat | Rodina Moskva |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 15th | 12th |
| Goal difference | -4 | -13 |
| Form (last 5, most recent first) | LDLLL | WLWDL |
| Points from last 5 | 1 | 7 |
| Goals scored / conceded (last 5) | 3 / 8 | 8 / 9 |
| Clean sheets (last 5) | 1 | 1 |
| Matches in our dataset (2026 season) | 10 | 9 |
| Goals per game, scored / conceded (2026) | 0.8 / 1.5 | 1.67 / 1.67 |
| Points per game (2026) | 0.7 | 1.33 |
| Form rating (0-100) | 27.3 | 48.4 |
| Players unavailable | 0 | 0 |
| Model win probability | 50% | 22% |
Key match insights
- Pre-match form ratings: Akhmat 27.3 versus Rodina Moskva 48.4, a gap of 21.1, which cuts against the model's favourite and is the tension in this one.
- Availability: No absentees listed for either side in our injury feed at the time of writing.
- Goals outlook: A combined scoring line of 2.00, over 2.5 goals at 45% and both teams to score at 49%.
- First goal: Leans Akhmat's way at 56%.
The call
The model tilts to Akhmat at 50%, without enough room to treat it as a formality. Rodina Moskva's stronger recent metrics back it and the goals line points to under 2.5 goals. Baseline expectation tilts Akhmat's way, especially at Akhmat-Arena.
This is a data-led read, not a certainty. The numbers are shown as they come out of the model so the basis for the call can be checked rather than assumed.
Frequently asked questions
Who is favoured to win the match: Akhmat or Rodina Moskva?
Akhmat, with an implied win probability of roughly 50%. The full split is 50% Akhmat, 27% the draw and 22% Rodina Moskva.
When and where is Akhmat vs Rodina Moskva being played?
7 November 2026 at Akhmat-Arena, Groznyj, kick-off 13:30 UTC.
Have Akhmat and Rodina Moskva met before?
Our records hold no previous meeting between the two sides.
What is the recent form of Akhmat and Rodina Moskva?
Akhmat have taken 1 points from their last five (LDLLL), Rodina Moskva 7 from theirs (WLWDL). Most recently Akhmat took a 0-2 defeat away at Dynamo and Rodina Moskva a 2-1 win at home to FC Krasnodar.
How many goals are expected in Akhmat vs Rodina Moskva?
The model's combined scoring line is 2.00 — 1.00 for Akhmat and 1.00 for Rodina Moskva. It rates over 2.5 goals at 45%.
Will both teams score?
The model rates both teams to score at 49%, so its call is no.