FC Krasnodar vs CSKA Moscow: the numbers, the form and our prediction
Our model makes FC Krasnodar the pick at 61% for FC Krasnodar vs CSKA Moscow. Form trajectory, comparison data, head-to-head and the reasoning behind the call.
Match summary
FC Krasnodar face CSKA Moscow on 7 November 2026 at Ozon Arena, Krasnodar. FC Krasnodar are the model's favourite, with a win probability of roughly 61%. This matchday 14 fixture in Premier League is listed as FC Krasnodar - CSKA Moscow. Kick-off is 16:30 UTC.
Recent form and trajectory
FC Krasnodar: they come in on the back of a defeat, following one win, two draws and one defeat before that. That is one win, two draws and two defeats from the last five, worth 5 points. Their 2026-season record in our dataset (16 scored and 12 conceded in nine matches, 1.78 and 1.33 per game) points to a fairly even balance between the two ends of the pitch. That is reflected in a form rating of 36.2 out of 100, and they sit 5th on a goal difference of +5.
CSKA Moscow: they come in on the back of a draw, following three wins and one defeat before that. That is three wins, one draw and one defeat from the last five, worth 10 points. It leaves them unbeaten in three. Their 2026-season record in our dataset (11 scored and 10 conceded in ten matches, 1.1 and 1.0 per game) points to a fairly even balance between the two ends of the pitch. That is reflected in a form rating of 60.6 out of 100, and they sit 3rd on a goal difference of +9.
Side by side
| Statistic | FC Krasnodar | CSKA Moscow |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 5th | 3rd |
| Goal difference | +5 | +9 |
| Form (last 5, most recent first) | LWDDL | DWWLW |
| Points from last 5 | 5 | 10 |
| Goals scored / conceded (last 5) | 7 / 9 | 10 / 4 |
| Clean sheets (last 5) | 0 | 3 |
| Matches in our dataset (2026 season) | 9 | 10 |
| Goals per game, scored / conceded (2026) | 1.78 / 1.33 | 1.1 / 1.0 |
| Points per game (2026) | 1.78 | 1.4 |
| Form rating (0-100) | 36.2 | 60.6 |
| Players unavailable | 0 | 0 |
| Model win probability | 61% | 17% |
| Head-to-head wins (last 2) | 1 | 1 |
What stands out
- Head-to-head balance (last 2): FC Krasnodar one win, CSKA Moscow one win, none draws — a historically tight match-up.
- Most recent meeting: FC Krasnodar 4-0 CSKA Moscow on 17 March 2026.
- Head-to-head goals: 4.0 per game across those meetings, with both teams scoring in one of the two — a fixture that has tended to open up.
- Pre-match form ratings: FC Krasnodar 36.2 versus CSKA Moscow 60.6, a gap of 24.3, which cuts against the model's favourite and is the tension in this one.
- Availability: No absentees listed for either side in our injury feed at the time of writing.
- Goals outlook: A combined scoring line of 2.80, over 2.5 goals at 55% and both teams to score at 53%.
- First goal: Leans FC Krasnodar's way at 66%.
The call
The model leans firmly towards FC Krasnodar at 61%, a gap of 39 percentage points to the next outcome. The goals line points to over 2.5 goals. Baseline expectation tilts FC Krasnodar's way, especially at Ozon Arena.
Everything here is model output and a reading of the form rather than a guarantee — the probabilities are published in full so the reasoning behind the call is visible.
Frequently asked questions
Who is favoured to win the match: FC Krasnodar or CSKA Moscow?
FC Krasnodar, with an implied win probability of roughly 61%. The full split is 61% FC Krasnodar, 22% the draw and 17% CSKA Moscow.
When and where is FC Krasnodar vs CSKA Moscow being played?
7 November 2026 at Ozon Arena, Krasnodar, kick-off 16:30 UTC.
What was the result of the last match between FC Krasnodar and CSKA Moscow?
FC Krasnodar 4-0 CSKA Moscow on 17 March 2026.
What is the recent form of FC Krasnodar and CSKA Moscow?
FC Krasnodar have taken 5 points from their last five (LWDDL), CSKA Moscow 10 from theirs (DWWLW). Most recently FC Krasnodar took a 1-2 defeat away at Rodina Moskva and CSKA Moscow a 0-0 draw away at FC Orenburg.
How many goals are expected in FC Krasnodar vs CSKA Moscow?
The model's combined scoring line is 2.80 — 1.40 for FC Krasnodar and 1.40 for CSKA Moscow. It rates over 2.5 goals at 55%.
Will both teams score?
The model rates both teams to score at 53%, so its call is yes.