Ried vs Wolfsberger AC: the numbers, the form and our prediction
Our model makes a draw the pick at 48% for Ried vs Wolfsberger AC. Form trajectory, comparison data, head-to-head and the reasoning behind the call.
The fixture at a glance
Ried host Wolfsberger AC on 20 September 2026 at Innviertel Arena, Ried. No side is favoured: the draw carries our highest model probability at 48%, which is unusual and says more about the matchup than either team. This matchday 7 fixture in Bundesliga is listed as Ried - Wolfsberger AC. Kick-off is 12:30 UTC.
Form analysis and trajectory
Ried: they come in on the back of a draw, following two wins and two defeats before that. That is two wins, one draw and two defeats from the last five, worth 7 points. Their 2025-season record in our dataset (17 scored and 21 conceded in 16 matches, 1.06 and 1.31 per game) points to a fairly even balance between the two ends of the pitch. That is reflected in a form rating of 37.3 out of 100, and they sit 10th on a goal difference of -4.
Wolfsberger AC: they come in on the back of a defeat, following two draws and two defeats before that. That is no wins, two draws and three defeats from the last five, worth 2 points. It leaves them winless in five. Their 2025-season record in our dataset (14 scored and 20 conceded in 15 matches, 0.93 and 1.33 per game) points to a fairly even balance between the two ends of the pitch. That is reflected in a form rating of 30.9 out of 100, and they sit 9th on a goal difference of -3.
Comparison data
| Statistic | Ried | Wolfsberger AC |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 10th | 9th |
| Goal difference | -4 | -3 |
| Form (last 5, most recent first) | DWLWL | LDLDL |
| Points from last 5 | 7 | 2 |
| Goals scored / conceded (last 5) | 10 / 9 | 4 / 10 |
| Clean sheets (last 5) | 1 | 1 |
| Matches in our dataset (2025 season) | 16 | 15 |
| Goals per game, scored / conceded (2025) | 1.06 / 1.31 | 0.93 / 1.33 |
| Points per game (2025) | 1.31 | 1.07 |
| Form rating (0-100) | 37.3 | 30.9 |
| Players unavailable | 0 | 0 |
| Model win probability | 36% | 16% |
| Head-to-head wins (last 3) | 1 | 1 |
Key match insights
- Head-to-head balance (last 3): Ried one win, Wolfsberger AC one win, one draw — a historically tight match-up.
- Most recent meeting: Ried 2-1 Wolfsberger AC on 19 May 2026.
- Head-to-head goals: 1.33 per game across those meetings, with both teams scoring in one of the three — a fixture that has historically stayed tight.
- Pre-match form ratings: Ried 37.3 versus Wolfsberger AC 30.9, a gap of 6.4, which cuts against the model's favourite and is the tension in this one.
- Availability: No absentees listed for either side in our injury feed at the time of writing.
- Goals outlook: A combined scoring line of 2.67, over 2.5 goals at 49% and both teams to score at 49%.
- First goal: Leans Ried's way at 58%.
Sentiment and prediction
The model tilts to a draw at 48%, without enough room to treat it as a formality. Ried's form line and home advantage back it, the goals line points to under 2.5 goals and draw probability stays material given the head-to-head draw rate.
Everything here is model output and a reading of the form rather than a guarantee — the probabilities are published in full so the reasoning behind the call is visible.
Frequently asked questions
Who is favoured to win the match: Ried or Wolfsberger AC?
Neither side. Our model splits it 36% Ried, 48% the draw and 16% Wolfsberger AC, with the draw carrying the highest probability.
When and where is Ried vs Wolfsberger AC being played?
20 September 2026 at Innviertel Arena, Ried, kick-off 12:30 UTC.
What was the result of the last match between Ried and Wolfsberger AC?
Ried 2-1 Wolfsberger AC on 19 May 2026.
What is the recent form of Ried and Wolfsberger AC?
Ried have taken 7 points from their last five (DWLWL), Wolfsberger AC 2 from theirs (LDLDL). Most recently Ried took a 1-1 draw at home to Red Bull Salzburg and Wolfsberger AC a 0-3 defeat at home to Rapid Vienna.
How many goals are expected in Ried vs Wolfsberger AC?
The model's combined scoring line is 2.67 — 1.67 for Ried and 1.00 for Wolfsberger AC. It rates over 2.5 goals at 49%.
Will both teams score?
The model rates both teams to score at 49%, so its call is no.