Grazer AK vs TSV Hartberg: match summary, form and prediction
Our model makes Grazer AK the pick at 58% for Grazer AK vs TSV Hartberg. Form trajectory, comparison data, head-to-head and the reasoning behind the call.
The fixture at a glance
Grazer AK host TSV Hartberg on 30 October 2026 at Merkur-Arena, Graz. Grazer AK are the model's favourite, with a win probability of roughly 58%. This matchday 11 fixture in Bundesliga is listed as Grazer AK - TSV Hartberg. Kick-off is 18:30 UTC.
Recent form and trajectory
Grazer AK: they come in on the back of a draw, following one win, two draws and one defeat before that. That is one win, three draws and one defeat from the last five, worth 6 points. It leaves them three games without a win. Their 2025-season record in our dataset (22 scored and 14 conceded in 13 matches, 1.69 and 1.08 per game) points to a fairly even balance between the two ends of the pitch. That is reflected in a form rating of 41.2 out of 100, and they sit 8th on a goal difference of -15.
TSV Hartberg: they come in on the back of a win, following two wins, one draw and one defeat before that. That is three wins, one draw and one defeat from the last five, worth 10 points. Their 2025-season record in our dataset (14 scored and 18 conceded in 14 matches, 1.0 and 1.29 per game) points to a fairly even balance between the two ends of the pitch. That is reflected in a form rating of 50.9 out of 100, and they sit 6th on a goal difference of -3.
Side by side
| Statistic | Grazer AK | TSV Hartberg |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 8th | 6th |
| Goal difference | -15 | -3 |
| Form (last 5, most recent first) | DLDWD | WLWWD |
| Points from last 5 | 6 | 10 |
| Goals scored / conceded (last 5) | 9 / 10 | 14 / 9 |
| Clean sheets (last 5) | 1 | 2 |
| Matches in our dataset (2025 season) | 13 | 14 |
| Goals per game, scored / conceded (2025) | 1.69 / 1.08 | 1.0 / 1.29 |
| Points per game (2025) | 1.38 | 1.07 |
| Form rating (0-100) | 41.2 | 50.9 |
| Players unavailable | 0 | 0 |
| Model win probability | 58% | 20% |
What stands out
- Pre-match form ratings: Grazer AK 41.2 versus TSV Hartberg 50.9, a gap of 9.7, which cuts against the model's favourite and is the tension in this one.
- Availability: No absentees listed for either side in our injury feed at the time of writing.
- Goals outlook: A combined scoring line of 2.40, over 2.5 goals at 62% and both teams to score at 59%.
- First goal: Leans Grazer AK's way at 65%.
Sentiment and prediction
The model leans firmly towards Grazer AK at 58%, a gap of 37 percentage points to the next outcome. TSV Hartberg's stronger recent metrics back it and the goals line points to over 2.5 goals. Baseline expectation tilts Grazer AK's way, especially at Merkur-Arena.
Everything here is model output and a reading of the form rather than a guarantee — the probabilities are published in full so the reasoning behind the call is visible.
Frequently asked questions
Who is favoured to win the match: Grazer AK or TSV Hartberg?
Grazer AK, with an implied win probability of roughly 58%. The full split is 58% Grazer AK, 21% the draw and 20% TSV Hartberg.
When and where is Grazer AK vs TSV Hartberg being played?
30 October 2026 at Merkur-Arena, Graz, kick-off 18:30 UTC.
What was the result of the last match between Grazer AK and TSV Hartberg?
TSV Hartberg 1-0 Grazer AK on 21 February 2026.
What is the recent form of Grazer AK and TSV Hartberg?
Grazer AK have taken 6 points from their last five (DLDWD), TSV Hartberg 10 from theirs (WLWWD). Most recently Grazer AK took a 1-1 draw away at WSG Wattens and TSV Hartberg a 1-0 win at home to Wolfsberger AC.
How many goals are expected in Grazer AK vs TSV Hartberg?
The model's combined scoring line is 2.40 — 1.20 for Grazer AK and 1.20 for TSV Hartberg. It rates over 2.5 goals at 62%.
Will both teams score?
The model rates both teams to score at 59%, so its call is yes.