Sturm Graz vs Red Bull Salzburg: the numbers, the form and our prediction
Our model makes Sturm Graz the pick at 41% for Sturm Graz vs Red Bull Salzburg. Form trajectory, comparison data, head-to-head and the reasoning behind the call.
Match summary
Red Bull Salzburg travel to Sturm Graz on 8 November 2026 at Merkur-Arena, Graz. Sturm Graz are the model's favourite, with a win probability of roughly 41%. This matchday 12 fixture in Bundesliga is listed as Sturm Graz - Red Bull Salzburg. Kick-off is 16:00 UTC.
Form analysis and trajectory
Sturm Graz: they come in on the back of a draw, following two wins, one draw and one defeat before that. That is two wins, two draws and one defeat from the last five, worth 8 points. It leaves them three games without a win. Their 2026-season record in our dataset (21 scored and 9 conceded in eleven matches, 1.91 and 0.82 per game) points to a side doing the job at both ends. That is reflected in a form rating of 53.2 out of 100, and they sit 4th on a goal difference of +6.
Red Bull Salzburg: they come in on a three-match winning sequence, following one win and one draw before that. That is four wins, one draw and no defeats from the last five, worth 13 points. It leaves them unbeaten in five. Their 2026-season record in our dataset (22 scored and 7 conceded in nine matches, 2.44 and 0.78 per game) points to a side doing the job at both ends. That is reflected in a form rating of 74.1 out of 100, and they sit 2nd on a goal difference of +23.
Comparison data
| Statistic | Sturm Graz | Red Bull Salzburg |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 4th | 2nd |
| Goal difference | +6 | +23 |
| Form (last 5, most recent first) | DLDWW | WWWDW |
| Points from last 5 | 8 | 13 |
| Goals scored / conceded (last 5) | 12 / 7 | 16 / 6 |
| Clean sheets (last 5) | 1 | 1 |
| Matches in our dataset (2026 season) | 11 | 9 |
| Goals per game, scored / conceded (2026) | 1.91 / 0.82 | 2.44 / 0.78 |
| Points per game (2026) | 1.91 | 2.33 |
| Form rating (0-100) | 53.2 | 74.1 |
| Players unavailable | 0 | 0 |
| Model win probability | 41% | 35% |
| Head-to-head wins (last 2) | 0 | 0 |
What stands out
- Head-to-head balance (last 2): Sturm Graz none wins, Red Bull Salzburg none wins, two draws — a historically tight match-up.
- Most recent meeting: Red Bull Salzburg 1-1 Sturm Graz on 03 May 2026.
- Head-to-head goals: 2.0 per game across those meetings, with both teams scoring in all of them — a fixture that has historically stayed tight.
- Pre-match form ratings: Sturm Graz 53.2 versus Red Bull Salzburg 74.1, a gap of 20.9, which cuts against the model's favourite and is the tension in this one.
- Availability: No absentees listed for either side in our injury feed at the time of writing.
- Goals outlook: A combined scoring line of 5.20, over 2.5 goals at 64% and both teams to score at 64%.
- First goal: Leans Sturm Graz's way at 55%.
Sentiment and prediction
The model edges towards Sturm Graz at 41%, and 'edges' is doing real work in that sentence. Red Bull Salzburg's stronger recent metrics back it and the goals line points to over 2.5 goals. Baseline expectation tilts Sturm Graz's way, especially at Merkur-Arena.
This is a data-led read, not a certainty. The numbers are shown as they come out of the model so the basis for the call can be checked rather than assumed.
Frequently asked questions
Who is favoured to win the match: Sturm Graz or Red Bull Salzburg?
Sturm Graz, with an implied win probability of roughly 41%. The full split is 41% Sturm Graz, 24% the draw and 35% Red Bull Salzburg.
When and where is Sturm Graz vs Red Bull Salzburg being played?
8 November 2026 at Merkur-Arena, Graz, kick-off 16:00 UTC.
What was the result of the last match between Sturm Graz and Red Bull Salzburg?
Red Bull Salzburg 1-1 Sturm Graz on 03 May 2026.
What is the recent form of Sturm Graz and Red Bull Salzburg?
Sturm Graz have taken 8 points from their last five (DLDWW), Red Bull Salzburg 13 from theirs (WWWDW). Most recently Sturm Graz took a 1-1 draw away at Wolfsberger AC and Red Bull Salzburg a 5-1 win at home to Austria Lustenau.
How many goals are expected in Sturm Graz vs Red Bull Salzburg?
The model's combined scoring line is 5.20 — 2.40 for Sturm Graz and 2.80 for Red Bull Salzburg. It rates over 2.5 goals at 64%.
Will both teams score?
The model rates both teams to score at 64%, so its call is yes.