Bristol City vs Lincoln — form, head-to-head and match prediction
Our model makes a draw the pick at 46% for Bristol City vs Lincoln. Form trajectory, comparison data, head-to-head and the reasoning behind the call.
The fixture at a glance
Bristol City face Lincoln on 15 September 2026 at Ashton Gate Stadium, Bristol. No side is favoured: the draw carries our highest model probability at 46%, which is unusual and says more about the matchup than either team. This matchday 6 fixture in Championship is listed as Bristol City - Lincoln. Kick-off is 18:45 UTC.
Form analysis and trajectory
Bristol City: they come in on a three-match winning sequence, following one draw and one defeat before that. That is three wins, one draw and one defeat from the last five, worth 10 points. It leaves them unbeaten in four. Their 2025-season record in our dataset (61 scored and 57 conceded in 44 matches, 1.39 and 1.3 per game) points to a fairly even balance between the two ends of the pitch. That is reflected in a form rating of 58.8 out of 100, and they sit 7th on a goal difference of +2.
Lincoln: they come in on the back of a defeat, following two wins and two draws before that. That is two wins, two draws and one defeat from the last five, worth 8 points. It leaves them three games without a win. Their 2025-season record in our dataset (50 scored and 15 conceded in 22 matches, 2.27 and 0.68 per game) points to a side doing the job at both ends. That is reflected in a form rating of 41.2 out of 100, and they sit 19th on a goal difference of -2.
Comparison data
| Statistic | Bristol City | Lincoln |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 7th | 19th |
| Goal difference | +2 | -2 |
| Form (last 5, most recent first) | WWWDL | LDDWW |
| Points from last 5 | 10 | 8 |
| Goals scored / conceded (last 5) | 9 / 7 | 6 / 6 |
| Clean sheets (last 5) | 0 | 2 |
| Matches in our dataset (2025 season) | 44 | 22 |
| Goals per game, scored / conceded (2025) | 1.39 / 1.3 | 2.27 / 0.68 |
| Points per game (2025) | 1.39 | 2.64 |
| Form rating (0-100) | 58.8 | 41.2 |
| Players unavailable | 0 | 0 |
| Model win probability | 15% | 39% |
Key match insights
- Pre-match form ratings: Bristol City 58.8 versus Lincoln 41.2, a gap of 17.7, which cuts against the model's favourite and is the tension in this one.
- Table gap: Twelve places separate them, the kind of margin that usually shows in the first twenty minutes.
- Availability: No absentees listed for either side in our injury feed at the time of writing.
- Goals outlook: A combined scoring line of 5.40, over 2.5 goals at 99% and both teams to score at 71%.
- First goal: Leans Lincoln's way at 49%.
The call
The model edges towards a draw at 46%, and 'edges' is doing real work in that sentence. Bristol City's form line and home advantage back it and the goals line points to over 2.5 goals.
Everything here is model output and a reading of the form rather than a guarantee — the probabilities are published in full so the reasoning behind the call is visible.
Frequently asked questions
Who is favoured to win the match: Bristol City or Lincoln?
Neither side. Our model splits it 15% Bristol City, 46% the draw and 39% Lincoln, with the draw carrying the highest probability.
When and where is Bristol City vs Lincoln being played?
15 September 2026 at Ashton Gate Stadium, Bristol, kick-off 18:45 UTC.
Have Bristol City and Lincoln met before?
Our records hold no previous meeting between the two sides.
What is the recent form of Bristol City and Lincoln?
Bristol City have taken 10 points from their last five (WWWDL), Lincoln 8 from theirs (LDDWW). Most recently Bristol City took a 2-1 win away at Burnley and Lincoln a 0-4 defeat away at Bournemouth.
How many goals are expected in Bristol City vs Lincoln?
The model's combined scoring line is 5.40 — 1.40 for Bristol City and 4.00 for Lincoln. It rates over 2.5 goals at 99%.
Will both teams score?
The model rates both teams to score at 71%, so its call is yes.