Blackburn vs Wrexham: the numbers, the form and our prediction
Our model makes Blackburn the pick at 47% for Blackburn vs Wrexham. Form trajectory, comparison data, head-to-head and the reasoning behind the call.
The fixture at a glance
Blackburn face Wrexham on 24 October 2026 at Ewood Park, Blackburn. Blackburn are the model's favourite, with a win probability of roughly 47%. This matchday 12 fixture in Championship is listed as Blackburn - Wrexham. Kick-off is 14:00 UTC.
Recent form and trajectory
Blackburn: they come in on the back of a defeat, following three wins and one draw before that. That is three wins, one draw and one defeat from the last five, worth 10 points. Their 2025-season record in our dataset (39 scored and 51 conceded in 43 matches, 0.91 and 1.19 per game) points to a fairly even balance between the two ends of the pitch. That is reflected in a form rating of 58.6 out of 100, and they sit 10th on a goal difference of +1.
Wrexham: they come in on the back of a win, following one win, one draw and two defeats before that. That is two wins, one draw and two defeats from the last five, worth 7 points. Their 2025-season record in our dataset (70 scored and 68 conceded in 46 matches, 1.52 and 1.48 per game) points to a fairly even balance between the two ends of the pitch. That is reflected in a form rating of 48.1 out of 100, and they sit 14th on a goal difference of -1.
Side by side
| Statistic | Blackburn | Wrexham |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 10th | 14th |
| Goal difference | +1 | -1 |
| Form (last 5, most recent first) | LWWDW | WLDWL |
| Points from last 5 | 10 | 7 |
| Goals scored / conceded (last 5) | 10 / 7 | 8 / 11 |
| Clean sheets (last 5) | 1 | 0 |
| Matches in our dataset (2025 season) | 43 | 46 |
| Goals per game, scored / conceded (2025) | 0.91 / 1.19 | 1.52 / 1.48 |
| Points per game (2025) | 1.16 | 1.5 |
| Form rating (0-100) | 58.6 | 48.1 |
| Players unavailable | 12 | 14 |
| Model win probability | 47% | 27% |
| Head-to-head wins (last 2) | 0 | 1 |
What stands out
- Head-to-head balance (last 2): Blackburn none wins, Wrexham one win, one draw — a historically tight match-up.
- Most recent meeting: Blackburn 0-2 Wrexham on 01 January 2026.
- Head-to-head goals: 2.0 per game across those meetings, with both teams scoring in one of the two — a fixture that has historically stayed tight.
- Pre-match form ratings: Blackburn 58.6 versus Wrexham 48.1, a gap of 10.5, which aligns with the model's favourite.
- Goals outlook: A combined scoring line of 2.00, over 2.5 goals at 53% and both teams to score at 53%.
- First goal: Leans Blackburn's way at 54%.
Sentiment and prediction
The model tilts to Blackburn at 47%, without enough room to treat it as a formality. The goals line points to over 2.5 goals. Baseline expectation tilts Blackburn's way, especially at Ewood Park.
Everything here is model output and a reading of the form rather than a guarantee — the probabilities are published in full so the reasoning behind the call is visible.
Frequently asked questions
Who is favoured to win the match: Blackburn or Wrexham?
Blackburn, with an implied win probability of roughly 47%. The full split is 47% Blackburn, 25% the draw and 27% Wrexham.
When and where is Blackburn vs Wrexham being played?
24 October 2026 at Ewood Park, Blackburn, kick-off 14:00 UTC.
What was the result of the last match between Blackburn and Wrexham?
Blackburn 0-2 Wrexham on 01 January 2026.
What is the recent form of Blackburn and Wrexham?
Blackburn have taken 10 points from their last five (LWWDW), Wrexham 7 from theirs (WLDWL). Most recently Blackburn took a 2-3 defeat away at West Brom and Wrexham a 4-1 win at home to Preston.
How many goals are expected in Blackburn vs Wrexham?
The model's combined scoring line is 2.00 — 1.40 for Blackburn and 0.60 for Wrexham. It rates over 2.5 goals at 53%.
Will both teams score?
The model rates both teams to score at 53%, so its call is yes.
Who is unavailable?
Our injury feed lists twelve players unavailable for Blackburn and 14 for Wrexham at the time of writing. Confirmed line-ups land about an hour before kick-off.