Cardiff vs Birmingham: the numbers, the form and our prediction
Our model makes Cardiff the pick at 51% for Cardiff vs Birmingham. Form trajectory, comparison data, head-to-head and the reasoning behind the call.
Match summary
Birmingham travel to Cardiff on 24 October 2026 at Cardiff City Stadium, Cardiff. Cardiff are the model's favourite, with a win probability of roughly 51%. This matchday 12 fixture in Championship is listed as Cardiff - Birmingham. Kick-off is 14:00 UTC.
Recent form and trajectory
Cardiff: they come in on the back of a draw, following two wins and two defeats before that. That is two wins, one draw and two defeats from the last five, worth 7 points. Their 2025-season record in our dataset (49 scored and 29 conceded in 24 matches, 2.04 and 1.21 per game) points to strong attacking output with occasional defensive lapses. That is reflected in a form rating of 48.6 out of 100, and they sit 19th on a goal difference of +1.
Birmingham: they come in on a three-match winning sequence, following one win and one draw before that. That is four wins, one draw and no defeats from the last five, worth 13 points. It leaves them unbeaten in five. Their 2025-season record in our dataset (55 scored and 51 conceded in 43 matches, 1.28 and 1.19 per game) points to a fairly even balance between the two ends of the pitch. That is reflected in a form rating of 70.6 out of 100, and they sit 4th on a goal difference of +9.
Side by side
| Statistic | Cardiff | Birmingham |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 19th | 4th |
| Goal difference | +1 | +9 |
| Form (last 5, most recent first) | DWLWL | WWWDW |
| Points from last 5 | 7 | 13 |
| Goals scored / conceded (last 5) | 11 / 7 | 12 / 3 |
| Clean sheets (last 5) | 0 | 3 |
| Matches in our dataset (2025 season) | 24 | 43 |
| Goals per game, scored / conceded (2025) | 2.04 / 1.21 | 1.28 / 1.19 |
| Points per game (2025) | 1.71 | 1.44 |
| Form rating (0-100) | 48.6 | 70.6 |
| Players unavailable | 10 | 4 |
| Model win probability | 51% | 30% |
Key match insights
- Pre-match form ratings: Cardiff 48.6 versus Birmingham 70.6, a gap of 22.0, which cuts against the model's favourite and is the tension in this one.
- Table gap: 15 places separate them, the kind of margin that usually shows in the first twenty minutes.
- Availability: Cardiff carry the heavier absentee list, ten players to four.
- Goals outlook: A combined scoring line of 2.40, over 2.5 goals at 57% and both teams to score at 56%.
- First goal: Leans Cardiff's way at 56%.
Sentiment and prediction
The model tilts to Cardiff at 51%, without enough room to treat it as a formality. The goals line points to over 2.5 goals. Baseline expectation tilts Cardiff's way, especially at Cardiff City Stadium.
This is a data-led read, not a certainty. The numbers are shown as they come out of the model so the basis for the call can be checked rather than assumed.
Frequently asked questions
Who is favoured to win the match: Cardiff or Birmingham?
Cardiff, with an implied win probability of roughly 51%. The full split is 51% Cardiff, 19% the draw and 30% Birmingham.
When and where is Cardiff vs Birmingham being played?
24 October 2026 at Cardiff City Stadium, Cardiff, kick-off 14:00 UTC.
Have Cardiff and Birmingham met before?
Our records hold no previous meeting between the two sides.
What is the recent form of Cardiff and Birmingham?
Cardiff have taken 7 points from their last five (DWLWL), Birmingham 13 from theirs (WWWDW). Most recently Cardiff took a 2-2 draw away at Middlesbrough and Birmingham a 3-0 win at home to QPR.
How many goals are expected in Cardiff vs Birmingham?
The model's combined scoring line is 2.40 — 1.20 for Cardiff and 1.20 for Birmingham. It rates over 2.5 goals at 57%.
Will both teams score?
The model rates both teams to score at 56%, so its call is yes.
Who is unavailable?
Our injury feed lists ten players unavailable for Cardiff and four for Birmingham at the time of writing. Confirmed line-ups land about an hour before kick-off.