Charlton vs Norwich: the numbers, the form and our prediction
Our model makes Norwich the pick at 63% for Charlton vs Norwich. Form trajectory, comparison data, head-to-head and the reasoning behind the call.
Match summary
Charlton face Norwich on 24 October 2026 at The Valley, London. Norwich are the model's favourite, with a win probability of roughly 63%. This matchday 12 fixture in Championship is listed as Charlton - Norwich. Kick-off is 11:30 UTC.
Recent form and trajectory
Charlton: they come in on the back of a defeat, following three draws and one defeat before that. That is no wins, three draws and two defeats from the last five, worth 3 points. It leaves them winless in five. Their 2025-season record in our dataset (40 scored and 59 conceded in 44 matches, 0.91 and 1.34 per game) points to a fairly even balance between the two ends of the pitch. That is reflected in a form rating of 33.8 out of 100, and they sit 17th on a goal difference of -5.
Norwich: they come in on five defeats in a row. That is no wins, no draws and five defeats from the last five, worth 0 points. It leaves them winless in five. Their 2025-season record in our dataset (63 scored and 55 conceded in 44 matches, 1.43 and 1.25 per game) points to a fairly even balance between the two ends of the pitch. That is reflected in a form rating of 24.0 out of 100, and they sit 21st on a goal difference of -4.
Comparison data
| Statistic | Charlton | Norwich |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 17th | 21st |
| Goal difference | -5 | -4 |
| Form (last 5, most recent first) | LDDLD | LLLLL |
| Points from last 5 | 3 | 0 |
| Goals scored / conceded (last 5) | 4 / 8 | 4 / 13 |
| Clean sheets (last 5) | 1 | 0 |
| Matches in our dataset (2025 season) | 44 | 44 |
| Goals per game, scored / conceded (2025) | 0.91 / 1.34 | 1.43 / 1.25 |
| Points per game (2025) | 1.07 | 1.45 |
| Form rating (0-100) | 33.8 | 24.0 |
| Players unavailable | 8 | 12 |
| Model win probability | 16% | 63% |
| Head-to-head wins (last 2) | 0 | 2 |
What stands out
- Head-to-head balance (last 2): Charlton none wins, Norwich two wins, none draws — an edge to Norwich.
- Most recent meeting: Charlton 0-1 Norwich on 21 March 2026.
- Head-to-head goals: 1.0 per game across those meetings, with both teams scoring in none of the two — a fixture that has historically stayed tight.
- Pre-match form ratings: Charlton 33.8 versus Norwich 24.0, a gap of 9.8, which cuts against the model's favourite and is the tension in this one.
- Availability: Norwich carry the heavier absentee list, twelve players to eight.
- Goals outlook: A combined scoring line of 3.00, over 2.5 goals at 52% and both teams to score at 57%.
- First goal: Leans Norwich's way at 62%.
The call
The model leans firmly towards Norwich at 63%, a gap of 43 percentage points to the next outcome. The goals line points to over 2.5 goals.
Everything here is model output and a reading of the form rather than a guarantee — the probabilities are published in full so the reasoning behind the call is visible.
Frequently asked questions
Who is favoured to win the match: Charlton or Norwich?
Norwich, with an implied win probability of roughly 63%. The full split is 16% Charlton, 21% the draw and 63% Norwich.
When and where is Charlton vs Norwich being played?
24 October 2026 at The Valley, London, kick-off 11:30 UTC.
What was the result of the last match between Charlton and Norwich?
Charlton 0-1 Norwich on 21 March 2026.
What is the recent form of Charlton and Norwich?
Charlton have taken 3 points from their last five (LDDLD), Norwich 0 from theirs (LLLLL). Most recently Charlton took a 0-2 defeat away at Watford and Norwich a 0-1 defeat at home to Portsmouth.
How many goals are expected in Charlton vs Norwich?
The model's combined scoring line is 3.00 — 0.60 for Charlton and 2.40 for Norwich. It rates over 2.5 goals at 52%.
Will both teams score?
The model rates both teams to score at 57%, so its call is yes.
Who is unavailable?
Our injury feed lists eight players unavailable for Charlton and twelve for Norwich at the time of writing. Confirmed line-ups land about an hour before kick-off.