Lincoln vs Burnley: match summary, form and prediction
Our model makes Lincoln the pick at 42% for Lincoln vs Burnley. Form trajectory, comparison data, head-to-head and the reasoning behind the call.
Match summary
Lincoln host Burnley on 24 October 2026 at Sincil Bank, Lincoln. Lincoln are the model's favourite, with a win probability of roughly 42%. This matchday 12 fixture in Championship is listed as Lincoln - Burnley. Kick-off is 14:00 UTC.
Form analysis and trajectory
Lincoln: they come in on the back of a draw, following one win and three defeats before that. That is one win, one draw and three defeats from the last five, worth 4 points. It leaves them winless in four. Their 2025-season record in our dataset (50 scored and 15 conceded in 22 matches, 2.27 and 0.68 per game) points to a side doing the job at both ends. That is reflected in a form rating of 35.8 out of 100, and they sit 18th on a goal difference of -10.
Burnley: they come in on the back of a defeat, following one win, two draws and one defeat before that. That is one win, two draws and two defeats from the last five, worth 5 points. Their 2025-season record in our dataset (41 scored and 73 conceded in 36 matches, 1.14 and 2.03 per game) points to a fairly even balance between the two ends of the pitch. That is reflected in a form rating of 40.4 out of 100, and they sit 22nd on a goal difference of -5.
Side by side
| Statistic | Lincoln | Burnley |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 18th | 22nd |
| Goal difference | -10 | -5 |
| Form (last 5, most recent first) | DLLLW | LDWDL |
| Points from last 5 | 4 | 5 |
| Goals scored / conceded (last 5) | 4 / 13 | 9 / 8 |
| Clean sheets (last 5) | 1 | 1 |
| Matches in our dataset (2025 season) | 22 | 36 |
| Goals per game, scored / conceded (2025) | 2.27 / 0.68 | 1.14 / 2.03 |
| Points per game (2025) | 2.64 | 0.61 |
| Form rating (0-100) | 35.8 | 40.4 |
| Players unavailable | 8 | 24 |
| Model win probability | 42% | 31% |
Key match insights
- Pre-match form ratings: Lincoln 35.8 versus Burnley 40.4, a gap of 4.6, which cuts against the model's favourite and is the tension in this one.
- Availability: Burnley carry the heavier absentee list, 24 players to eight.
- Goals outlook: A combined scoring line of 2.00, over 2.5 goals at 55% and both teams to score at 58%.
- First goal: Leans Lincoln's way at 55%.
The call
The model edges towards Lincoln at 42%, and 'edges' is doing real work in that sentence. Burnley's stronger recent metrics back it and the goals line points to over 2.5 goals. Baseline expectation tilts Lincoln's way, especially at Sincil Bank.
Everything here is model output and a reading of the form rather than a guarantee — the probabilities are published in full so the reasoning behind the call is visible.
Frequently asked questions
Who is favoured to win the match: Lincoln or Burnley?
Lincoln, with an implied win probability of roughly 42%. The full split is 42% Lincoln, 27% the draw and 31% Burnley.
When and where is Lincoln vs Burnley being played?
24 October 2026 at Sincil Bank, Lincoln, kick-off 14:00 UTC.
Have Lincoln and Burnley met before?
Our records hold no previous meeting between the two sides.
What is the recent form of Lincoln and Burnley?
Lincoln have taken 4 points from their last five (DLLLW), Burnley 5 from theirs (LDWDL). Most recently Lincoln took a 2-2 draw away at Millwall and Burnley a 1-2 defeat at home to Wolves.
How many goals are expected in Lincoln vs Burnley?
The model's combined scoring line is 2.00 — 1.00 for Lincoln and 1.00 for Burnley. It rates over 2.5 goals at 55%.
Will both teams score?
The model rates both teams to score at 58%, so its call is yes.
Who is unavailable?
Our injury feed lists eight players unavailable for Lincoln and 24 for Burnley at the time of writing. Confirmed line-ups land about an hour before kick-off.