Portsmouth vs Millwall — form, head-to-head and match prediction
There is barely anything between Portsmouth and Millwall on our numbers. Form trajectory, a side-by-side comparison, the head-to-head record and where the model does — and does not — commit.
Match summary
Millwall travel to Portsmouth on 24 October 2026 at Fratton Park, Portsmouth. Portsmouth are the model's favourite, with a win probability of roughly 38%. This matchday 12 fixture in Championship is listed as Portsmouth - Millwall. Kick-off is 11:30 UTC.
Form analysis and trajectory
Portsmouth: they come in on the back of a draw, following two wins, one draw and one defeat before that. That is two wins, two draws and one defeat from the last five, worth 8 points. It leaves them unbeaten in three. Their 2025-season record in our dataset (45 scored and 62 conceded in 44 matches, 1.02 and 1.41 per game) points to a fairly even balance between the two ends of the pitch. That is reflected in a form rating of 51.7 out of 100, and they sit 13th on a goal difference of 0.
Millwall: they come in on the back of a draw, following one win, two draws and one defeat before that. That is one win, three draws and one defeat from the last five, worth 6 points. Their 2025-season record in our dataset (59 scored and 52 conceded in 44 matches, 1.34 and 1.18 per game) points to a fairly even balance between the two ends of the pitch. That is reflected in a form rating of 45.0 out of 100, and they sit 12th on a goal difference of 0.
Comparison data
| Statistic | Portsmouth | Millwall |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 13th | 12th |
| Goal difference | 0 | 0 |
| Form (last 5, most recent first) | DWWLD | DLWDD |
| Points from last 5 | 8 | 6 |
| Goals scored / conceded (last 5) | 7 / 6 | 7 / 7 |
| Clean sheets (last 5) | 1 | 1 |
| Matches in our dataset (2025 season) | 44 | 44 |
| Goals per game, scored / conceded (2025) | 1.02 / 1.41 | 1.34 / 1.18 |
| Points per game (2025) | 1.11 | 1.68 |
| Form rating (0-100) | 51.7 | 45.0 |
| Players unavailable | 20 | 14 |
| Model win probability | 38% | 27% |
| Head-to-head wins (last 4) | 2 | 2 |
Key match insights
- Head-to-head balance (last 4): Portsmouth two wins, Millwall two wins, none draws — a historically tight match-up.
- Most recent meeting: Millwall 1-3 Portsmouth on 21 February 2026.
- Head-to-head goals: 3.0 per game across those meetings, with both teams scoring in three of the four — a fixture that has tended to open up.
- Pre-match form ratings: Portsmouth 51.7 versus Millwall 45.0, a gap of 6.7, which aligns with the model's favourite.
- Availability: Portsmouth carry the heavier absentee list, 20 players to 14.
- Goals outlook: A combined scoring line of 2.60, over 2.5 goals at 48% and both teams to score at 53%.
- First goal: Leans Portsmouth's way at 48%.
Sentiment and prediction
The model does not commit. Portsmouth is the nominal pick at 38%, but the three results sit close to even. The goals line points to under 2.5 goals. Baseline expectation tilts Portsmouth's way, especially at Fratton Park.
This is a data-led read, not a certainty. The numbers are shown as they come out of the model so the basis for the call can be checked rather than assumed.
Frequently asked questions
Who is favoured to win the match: Portsmouth or Millwall?
Portsmouth, with an implied win probability of roughly 38%. The full split is 38% Portsmouth, 34% the draw and 27% Millwall.
When and where is Portsmouth vs Millwall being played?
24 October 2026 at Fratton Park, Portsmouth, kick-off 11:30 UTC.
What was the result of the last match between Portsmouth and Millwall?
Millwall 1-3 Portsmouth on 21 February 2026.
What is the recent form of Portsmouth and Millwall?
Portsmouth have taken 8 points from their last five (DWWLD), Millwall 6 from theirs (DLWDD). Most recently Portsmouth took a 1-1 draw away at Wolves and Millwall a 2-2 draw at home to Lincoln.
How many goals are expected in Portsmouth vs Millwall?
The model's combined scoring line is 2.60 — 0.80 for Portsmouth and 1.80 for Millwall. It rates over 2.5 goals at 48%.
Will both teams score?
The model rates both teams to score at 53%, so its call is yes.
Who is unavailable?
Our injury feed lists 20 players unavailable for Portsmouth and 14 for Millwall at the time of writing. Confirmed line-ups land about an hour before kick-off.