QPR vs Swansea: the numbers, the form and our prediction
Our model makes Swansea the pick at 45% for QPR vs Swansea. Form trajectory, comparison data, head-to-head and the reasoning behind the call.
The fixture at a glance
QPR host Swansea on 24 October 2026 at Loftus Road, London. Swansea are the model's favourite, with a win probability of roughly 45%. This matchday 12 fixture in Championship is listed as QPR - Swansea. Kick-off is 14:00 UTC.
Recent form and trajectory
QPR: they come in on the back of a defeat, following one win and three draws before that. That is one win, three draws and one defeat from the last five, worth 6 points. Their 2025-season record in our dataset (53 scored and 70 conceded in 42 matches, 1.26 and 1.67 per game) points to a fairly even balance between the two ends of the pitch. That is reflected in a form rating of 45.8 out of 100, and they sit 9th on a goal difference of +3.
Swansea: they come in on the back of a defeat, following four wins before that. That is four wins, no draws and one defeat from the last five, worth 12 points. Their 2025-season record in our dataset (54 scored and 56 conceded in 43 matches, 1.26 and 1.3 per game) points to a fairly even balance between the two ends of the pitch. That is reflected in a form rating of 67.0 out of 100, and they sit 1st on a goal difference of +8.
Comparison data
| Statistic | QPR | Swansea |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 9th | 1st |
| Goal difference | +3 | +8 |
| Form (last 5, most recent first) | LWDDD | LWWWW |
| Points from last 5 | 6 | 12 |
| Goals scored / conceded (last 5) | 8 / 8 | 8 / 4 |
| Clean sheets (last 5) | 0 | 1 |
| Matches in our dataset (2025 season) | 42 | 43 |
| Goals per game, scored / conceded (2025) | 1.26 / 1.67 | 1.26 / 1.3 |
| Points per game (2025) | 1.21 | 1.4 |
| Form rating (0-100) | 45.8 | 67.0 |
| Players unavailable | 8 | 4 |
| Model win probability | 26% | 45% |
| Head-to-head wins (last 4) | 1 | 3 |
Key match insights
- Head-to-head balance (last 4): QPR one win, Swansea three wins, none draws — an edge to Swansea.
- Most recent meeting: QPR 1-2 Swansea on 21 April 2026.
- Head-to-head goals: 2.5 per game across those meetings, with both teams scoring in two of the four — broadly an average game for goals.
- Pre-match form ratings: QPR 45.8 versus Swansea 67.0, a gap of 21.2, which aligns with the model's favourite.
- Table gap: Eight places separate them, the kind of margin that usually shows in the first twenty minutes.
- Availability: QPR carry the heavier absentee list, eight players to four.
- Goals outlook: A combined scoring line of 1.60, over 2.5 goals at 46% and both teams to score at 53%.
- First goal: Leans Swansea's way at 51%.
Sentiment and prediction
The model edges towards Swansea at 45%, and 'edges' is doing real work in that sentence. The goals line points to under 2.5 goals.
This is a data-led read, not a certainty. The numbers are shown as they come out of the model so the basis for the call can be checked rather than assumed.
Frequently asked questions
Who is favoured to win the match: QPR or Swansea?
Swansea, with an implied win probability of roughly 45%. The full split is 26% QPR, 29% the draw and 45% Swansea.
When and where is QPR vs Swansea being played?
24 October 2026 at Loftus Road, London, kick-off 14:00 UTC.
What was the result of the last match between QPR and Swansea?
QPR 1-2 Swansea on 21 April 2026.
What is the recent form of QPR and Swansea?
QPR have taken 6 points from their last five (LWDDD), Swansea 12 from theirs (LWWWW). Most recently QPR took a 0-3 defeat away at Birmingham and Swansea a 0-1 defeat at home to West Ham.
How many goals are expected in QPR vs Swansea?
The model's combined scoring line is 1.60 — 0.40 for QPR and 1.20 for Swansea. It rates over 2.5 goals at 46%.
Will both teams score?
The model rates both teams to score at 53%, so its call is yes.
Who is unavailable?
Our injury feed lists eight players unavailable for QPR and four for Swansea at the time of writing. Confirmed line-ups land about an hour before kick-off.