Sheffield Utd vs Derby: match summary, form and prediction
There is barely anything between Sheffield Utd and Derby on our numbers. Form trajectory, a side-by-side comparison, the head-to-head record and where the model does — and does not — commit.
Match summary
Derby travel to Sheffield Utd on 24 October 2026 at Bramall Lane, Sheffield. Sheffield Utd are the model's favourite, with a win probability of roughly 37%. This matchday 12 fixture in Championship is listed as Sheffield Utd - Derby. Kick-off is 11:30 UTC.
Form analysis and trajectory
Sheffield Utd: they come in on the back of a win, following one win and three defeats before that. That is two wins, no draws and three defeats from the last five, worth 6 points. Their 2025-season record in our dataset (59 scored and 63 conceded in 42 matches, 1.4 and 1.5 per game) points to a fairly even balance between the two ends of the pitch. That is reflected in a form rating of 45.2 out of 100, and they sit 11th on a goal difference of +1.
Derby: they come in on back-to-back defeats, following two draws and one defeat before that. That is no wins, two draws and three defeats from the last five, worth 2 points. It leaves them winless in five. Their 2025-season record in our dataset (63 scored and 54 conceded in 42 matches, 1.5 and 1.29 per game) points to a fairly even balance between the two ends of the pitch. That is reflected in a form rating of 28.9 out of 100, and they sit 23rd on a goal difference of -11.
Side by side
| Statistic | Sheffield Utd | Derby |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 11th | 23rd |
| Goal difference | +1 | -11 |
| Form (last 5, most recent first) | WLWLL | LLDDL |
| Points from last 5 | 6 | 2 |
| Goals scored / conceded (last 5) | 7 / 6 | 4 / 9 |
| Clean sheets (last 5) | 2 | 0 |
| Matches in our dataset (2025 season) | 42 | 42 |
| Goals per game, scored / conceded (2025) | 1.4 / 1.5 | 1.5 / 1.29 |
| Points per game (2025) | 1.21 | 1.55 |
| Form rating (0-100) | 45.2 | 28.9 |
| Players unavailable | 4 | 18 |
| Model win probability | 37% | 33% |
| Head-to-head wins (last 4) | 3 | 1 |
Key match insights
- Head-to-head balance (last 4): Sheffield Utd three wins, Derby one win, none draws — an edge to Sheffield Utd.
- Most recent meeting: Derby 1-2 Sheffield Utd on 02 May 2026.
- Head-to-head goals: 2.25 per game across those meetings, with both teams scoring in two of the four — broadly an average game for goals.
- Pre-match form ratings: Sheffield Utd 45.2 versus Derby 28.9, a gap of 16.3, which aligns with the model's favourite.
- Table gap: Twelve places separate them, the kind of margin that usually shows in the first twenty minutes.
- Availability: Derby carry the heavier absentee list, 18 players to four.
- Goals outlook: A combined scoring line of 2.00, over 2.5 goals at 54% and both teams to score at 59%.
- First goal: Leans Sheffield Utd's way at 49%.
Sentiment and prediction
The model does not commit. Sheffield Utd is the nominal pick at 37%, but the three results sit close to even. Sheffield Utd's form line and home advantage back it and the goals line points to over 2.5 goals. Baseline expectation tilts Sheffield Utd's way, especially at Bramall Lane.
Everything here is model output and a reading of the form rather than a guarantee — the probabilities are published in full so the reasoning behind the call is visible.
Frequently asked questions
Who is favoured to win the match: Sheffield Utd or Derby?
Sheffield Utd, with an implied win probability of roughly 37%. The full split is 37% Sheffield Utd, 30% the draw and 33% Derby.
When and where is Sheffield Utd vs Derby being played?
24 October 2026 at Bramall Lane, Sheffield, kick-off 11:30 UTC.
What was the result of the last match between Sheffield Utd and Derby?
Derby 1-2 Sheffield Utd on 02 May 2026.
What is the recent form of Sheffield Utd and Derby?
Sheffield Utd have taken 6 points from their last five (WLWLL), Derby 2 from theirs (LLDDL). Most recently Sheffield Utd took a 1-0 win away at Bristol City and Derby a 0-1 defeat at home to Stoke City.
How many goals are expected in Sheffield Utd vs Derby?
The model's combined scoring line is 2.00 — 1.20 for Sheffield Utd and 0.80 for Derby. It rates over 2.5 goals at 54%.
Will both teams score?
The model rates both teams to score at 59%, so its call is yes.
Who is unavailable?
Our injury feed lists four players unavailable for Sheffield Utd and 18 for Derby at the time of writing. Confirmed line-ups land about an hour before kick-off.