Stoke City vs Bristol City: match summary, form and prediction
Our model makes Bristol City the pick at 38% for Stoke City vs Bristol City. Form trajectory, comparison data, head-to-head and the reasoning behind the call.
Match summary
Bristol City travel to Stoke City on 24 October 2026 at bet365 Stadium, Stoke-On-Trent. Bristol City are the model's favourite, with a win probability of roughly 38%. This matchday 12 fixture in Championship is listed as Stoke City - Bristol City. Kick-off is 14:00 UTC.
Form analysis and trajectory
Stoke City: they come in on the back of a win, following three wins and one defeat before that. That is four wins, no draws and one defeat from the last five, worth 12 points. Their 2025-season record in our dataset (49 scored and 53 conceded in 43 matches, 1.14 and 1.23 per game) points to a fairly even balance between the two ends of the pitch. That is reflected in a form rating of 65.5 out of 100, and they sit 6th on a goal difference of +2.
Bristol City: they come in on back-to-back defeats, following two wins and one draw before that. That is two wins, one draw and two defeats from the last five, worth 7 points. It leaves them three games without a win. Their 2025-season record in our dataset (61 scored and 57 conceded in 44 matches, 1.39 and 1.3 per game) points to a fairly even balance between the two ends of the pitch. That is reflected in a form rating of 37.6 out of 100, and they sit 16th on a goal difference of -3.
Side by side
| Statistic | Stoke City | Bristol City |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 6th | 16th |
| Goal difference | +2 | -3 |
| Form (last 5, most recent first) | WLWWW | LLDWW |
| Points from last 5 | 12 | 7 |
| Goals scored / conceded (last 5) | 9 / 6 | 4 / 3 |
| Clean sheets (last 5) | 1 | 2 |
| Matches in our dataset (2025 season) | 43 | 44 |
| Goals per game, scored / conceded (2025) | 1.14 / 1.23 | 1.39 / 1.3 |
| Points per game (2025) | 1.26 | 1.39 |
| Form rating (0-100) | 65.5 | 37.6 |
| Players unavailable | 8 | 8 |
| Model win probability | 33% | 38% |
| Head-to-head wins (last 4) | 1 | 2 |
Key match insights
- Head-to-head balance (last 4): Stoke City one win, Bristol City two wins, one draw — a historically tight match-up.
- Most recent meeting: Bristol City 2-0 Stoke City on 02 May 2026.
- Head-to-head goals: 3.5 per game across those meetings, with both teams scoring in two of the four — a fixture that has tended to open up.
- Pre-match form ratings: Stoke City 65.5 versus Bristol City 37.6, a gap of 27.9, which cuts against the model's favourite and is the tension in this one.
- Table gap: Ten places separate them, the kind of margin that usually shows in the first twenty minutes.
- Goals outlook: A combined scoring line of 3.20, over 2.5 goals at 52% and both teams to score at 58%.
- First goal: Leans Bristol City's way at 51%.
Sentiment and prediction
The model edges towards Bristol City at 38%, and 'edges' is doing real work in that sentence. Stoke City's form line and home advantage back it and the goals line points to over 2.5 goals.
Everything here is model output and a reading of the form rather than a guarantee — the probabilities are published in full so the reasoning behind the call is visible.
Frequently asked questions
Who is favoured to win the match: Stoke City or Bristol City?
Bristol City, with an implied win probability of roughly 38%. The full split is 33% Stoke City, 30% the draw and 38% Bristol City.
When and where is Stoke City vs Bristol City being played?
24 October 2026 at bet365 Stadium, Stoke-On-Trent, kick-off 14:00 UTC.
What was the result of the last match between Stoke City and Bristol City?
Bristol City 2-0 Stoke City on 02 May 2026.
What is the recent form of Stoke City and Bristol City?
Stoke City have taken 12 points from their last five (WLWWW), Bristol City 7 from theirs (LLDWW). Most recently Stoke City took a 1-0 win away at Derby and Bristol City a 0-1 defeat at home to Sheffield Utd.
How many goals are expected in Stoke City vs Bristol City?
The model's combined scoring line is 3.20 — 2.00 for Stoke City and 1.20 for Bristol City. It rates over 2.5 goals at 52%.
Will both teams score?
The model rates both teams to score at 58%, so its call is yes.
Who is unavailable?
Our injury feed lists eight players unavailable for Stoke City and eight for Bristol City at the time of writing. Confirmed line-ups land about an hour before kick-off.