West Ham vs Southampton match summary and prediction — Championship
Our model makes West Ham the pick at 47% for West Ham vs Southampton. Form trajectory, comparison data, head-to-head and the reasoning behind the call.
Match summary
Southampton travel to West Ham on 24 October 2026 at London Stadium, London. West Ham are the model's favourite, with a win probability of roughly 47%. This matchday 12 fixture in Championship is listed as West Ham - Southampton. Kick-off is 14:00 UTC.
Recent form and trajectory
West Ham: they come in on a two-match winning sequence, following two draws and one defeat before that. That is two wins, two draws and one defeat from the last five, worth 8 points. It leaves them unbeaten in four. Their 2025-season record in our dataset (49 scored and 62 conceded in 37 matches, 1.32 and 1.68 per game) points to a fairly even balance between the two ends of the pitch. That is reflected in a form rating of 66.2 out of 100, and they sit 2nd on a goal difference of +18.
Southampton: they come in on the back of a draw, following three wins and one defeat before that. That is three wins, one draw and one defeat from the last five, worth 10 points. It leaves them unbeaten in three. Their 2025-season record in our dataset (90 scored and 55 conceded in 49 matches, 1.84 and 1.12 per game) points to strong attacking output with occasional defensive lapses. That is reflected in a form rating of 61.1 out of 100, and they sit 8th on a goal difference of +11.
Side by side
| Statistic | West Ham | Southampton |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 2nd | 8th |
| Goal difference | +18 | +11 |
| Form (last 5, most recent first) | WWDDL | DWWLW |
| Points from last 5 | 8 | 10 |
| Goals scored / conceded (last 5) | 12 / 6 | 7 / 3 |
| Clean sheets (last 5) | 2 | 3 |
| Matches in our dataset (2025 season) | 37 | 49 |
| Goals per game, scored / conceded (2025) | 1.32 / 1.68 | 1.84 / 1.12 |
| Points per game (2025) | 1.11 | 1.92 |
| Form rating (0-100) | 66.2 | 61.1 |
| Players unavailable | 2 | 2 |
| Model win probability | 47% | 29% |
| Head-to-head wins (last 4) | 2 | 0 |
Key match insights
- Head-to-head balance (last 4): West Ham two wins, Southampton none wins, two draws — an edge to West Ham.
- Most recent meeting: West Ham 1-1 Southampton on 19 April 2025.
- Head-to-head goals: 1.5 per game across those meetings, with both teams scoring in two of the four — a fixture that has historically stayed tight.
- Pre-match form ratings: West Ham 66.2 versus Southampton 61.1, a gap of 5.1, which aligns with the model's favourite.
- Goals outlook: A combined scoring line of 5.80, over 2.5 goals at 61% and both teams to score at 58%.
- First goal: Leans West Ham's way at 53%.
The call
The model tilts to West Ham at 47%, without enough room to treat it as a formality. The goals line points to over 2.5 goals and draw probability stays material given the head-to-head draw rate. Baseline expectation tilts West Ham's way, especially at London Stadium.
This is a data-led read, not a certainty. The numbers are shown as they come out of the model so the basis for the call can be checked rather than assumed.
Frequently asked questions
Who is favoured to win the match: West Ham or Southampton?
West Ham, with an implied win probability of roughly 47%. The full split is 47% West Ham, 24% the draw and 29% Southampton.
When and where is West Ham vs Southampton being played?
24 October 2026 at London Stadium, London, kick-off 14:00 UTC.
What was the result of the last match between West Ham and Southampton?
West Ham 1-1 Southampton on 19 April 2025.
What is the recent form of West Ham and Southampton?
West Ham have taken 8 points from their last five (WWDDL), Southampton 10 from theirs (DWWLW). Most recently West Ham took a 1-0 win away at Swansea and Southampton a 0-0 draw at home to Bolton.
How many goals are expected in West Ham vs Southampton?
The model's combined scoring line is 5.80 — 3.60 for West Ham and 2.20 for Southampton. It rates over 2.5 goals at 61%.
Will both teams score?
The model rates both teams to score at 58%, so its call is yes.
Who is unavailable?
Our injury feed lists two players unavailable for West Ham and two for Southampton at the time of writing. Confirmed line-ups land about an hour before kick-off.