Bolton vs Bristol City: the numbers, the form and our prediction
Our model makes Bolton the pick at 40% for Bolton vs Bristol City. Form trajectory, comparison data, head-to-head and the reasoning behind the call.
The fixture at a glance
Bolton face Bristol City on 31 October 2026 at Toughsheet Community Stadium, Horwich. Bolton are the model's favourite, with a win probability of roughly 40%. This matchday 13 fixture in Championship is listed as Bolton - Bristol City. Kick-off is 15:00 UTC.
Recent form and trajectory
Bolton: they come in on the back of a defeat, following two wins, one draw and one defeat before that. That is two wins, one draw and two defeats from the last five, worth 7 points. Their 2026-season record in our dataset (6 scored and 16 conceded in six matches, 1.0 and 2.67 per game) points to a fairly even balance between the two ends of the pitch. That is reflected in a form rating of 46.6 out of 100, and they sit 18th on a goal difference of -7.
Bristol City: they come in on the back of a draw, following one win, one draw and two defeats before that. That is one win, two draws and two defeats from the last five, worth 5 points. It leaves them winless in four. Their 2026-season record in our dataset (6 scored and 8 conceded in six matches, 1.0 and 1.33 per game) points to a fairly even balance between the two ends of the pitch. That is reflected in a form rating of 40.9 out of 100, and they sit 14th on a goal difference of -3.
Comparison data
| Statistic | Bolton | Bristol City |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 18th | 14th |
| Goal difference | -7 | -3 |
| Form (last 5, most recent first) | LDWLW | DLLDW |
| Points from last 5 | 7 | 5 |
| Goals scored / conceded (last 5) | 9 / 11 | 3 / 3 |
| Clean sheets (last 5) | 1 | 2 |
| Matches in our dataset (2026 season) | 6 | 6 |
| Goals per game, scored / conceded (2026) | 1.0 / 2.67 | 1.0 / 1.33 |
| Points per game (2026) | 0.5 | 1.17 |
| Form rating (0-100) | 46.6 | 40.9 |
| Players unavailable | 10 | 8 |
| Model win probability | 40% | 33% |
Key match insights
- Pre-match form ratings: Bolton 46.6 versus Bristol City 40.9, a gap of 5.7, which aligns with the model's favourite.
- Goals outlook: A combined scoring line of 2.40, over 2.5 goals at 50% and both teams to score at 55%.
- First goal: Leans Bristol City's way at 48%.
The call
The model edges towards Bolton at 40%, and 'edges' is doing real work in that sentence. Bolton's form line and home advantage back it and the goals line points to over 2.5 goals. Baseline expectation tilts Bolton's way, especially at Toughsheet Community Stadium.
Everything here is model output and a reading of the form rather than a guarantee — the probabilities are published in full so the reasoning behind the call is visible.
Frequently asked questions
Who is favoured to win the match: Bolton or Bristol City?
Bolton, with an implied win probability of roughly 40%. The full split is 40% Bolton, 27% the draw and 33% Bristol City.
When and where is Bolton vs Bristol City being played?
31 October 2026 at Toughsheet Community Stadium, Horwich, kick-off 15:00 UTC.
Have Bolton and Bristol City met before?
Our records hold no previous meeting between the two sides.
What is the recent form of Bolton and Bristol City?
Bolton have taken 7 points from their last five (LDWLW), Bristol City 5 from theirs (DLLDW). Most recently Bolton took a 1-5 defeat at home to Middlesbrough and Bristol City a 0-0 draw away at Stoke City.
How many goals are expected in Bolton vs Bristol City?
The model's combined scoring line is 2.40 — 1.20 for Bolton and 1.20 for Bristol City. It rates over 2.5 goals at 50%.
Will both teams score?
The model rates both teams to score at 55%, so its call is yes.
Who is unavailable?
Our injury feed lists ten players unavailable for Bolton and eight for Bristol City at the time of writing. Confirmed line-ups land about an hour before kick-off.