Burnley vs Portsmouth — form, head-to-head and match prediction
Our model makes Burnley the pick at 42% for Burnley vs Portsmouth. Form trajectory, comparison data, head-to-head and the reasoning behind the call.
Match summary
Burnley face Portsmouth on 31 October 2026 at Turf Moor, Burnley. Burnley are the model's favourite, with a win probability of roughly 42%. This matchday 13 fixture in Championship is listed as Burnley - Portsmouth. Kick-off is 15:00 UTC.
Recent form and trajectory
Burnley: they come in on back-to-back defeats, following one win and two draws before that. That is one win, two draws and two defeats from the last five, worth 5 points. It leaves them three games without a win. Their 2025-season record in our dataset (41 scored and 73 conceded in 36 matches, 1.14 and 2.03 per game) points to a fairly even balance between the two ends of the pitch. That is reflected in a form rating of 39.7 out of 100, and they sit 22nd on a goal difference of -8.
Portsmouth: they come in on the back of a win, following two wins, one draw and one defeat before that. That is three wins, one draw and one defeat from the last five, worth 10 points. It leaves them unbeaten in four. Their 2025-season record in our dataset (45 scored and 62 conceded in 44 matches, 1.02 and 1.41 per game) points to a fairly even balance between the two ends of the pitch. That is reflected in a form rating of 58.6 out of 100, and they sit 12th on a goal difference of +1.
Comparison data
| Statistic | Burnley | Portsmouth |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 22nd | 12th |
| Goal difference | -8 | +1 |
| Form (last 5, most recent first) | LLDWD | WDWWL |
| Points from last 5 | 5 | 10 |
| Goals scored / conceded (last 5) | 9 / 9 | 7 / 5 |
| Clean sheets (last 5) | 1 | 1 |
| Matches in our dataset (2025 season) | 36 | 44 |
| Goals per game, scored / conceded (2025) | 1.14 / 2.03 | 1.02 / 1.41 |
| Points per game (2025) | 0.61 | 1.11 |
| Form rating (0-100) | 39.7 | 58.6 |
| Players unavailable | 32 | 18 |
| Model win probability | 42% | 30% |
| Head-to-head wins (last 2) | 1 | 0 |
What stands out
- Head-to-head balance (last 2): Burnley one win, Portsmouth none wins, one draw — a historically tight match-up.
- Most recent meeting: Portsmouth 0-0 Burnley on 01 February 2025.
- Head-to-head goals: 1.5 per game across those meetings, with both teams scoring in one of the two — a fixture that has historically stayed tight.
- Pre-match form ratings: Burnley 39.7 versus Portsmouth 58.6, a gap of 18.9, which cuts against the model's favourite and is the tension in this one.
- Table gap: Ten places separate them, the kind of margin that usually shows in the first twenty minutes.
- Availability: Burnley carry the heavier absentee list, 32 players to 18.
- Goals outlook: A combined scoring line of 2.00, over 2.5 goals at 49% and both teams to score at 55%.
- First goal: Leans Burnley's way at 52%.
Sentiment and prediction
The model edges towards Burnley at 42%, and 'edges' is doing real work in that sentence. Portsmouth's stronger recent metrics back it and the goals line points to under 2.5 goals. Baseline expectation tilts Burnley's way, especially at Turf Moor.
Everything here is model output and a reading of the form rather than a guarantee — the probabilities are published in full so the reasoning behind the call is visible.
Frequently asked questions
Who is favoured to win the match: Burnley or Portsmouth?
Burnley, with an implied win probability of roughly 42%. The full split is 42% Burnley, 28% the draw and 30% Portsmouth.
When and where is Burnley vs Portsmouth being played?
31 October 2026 at Turf Moor, Burnley, kick-off 15:00 UTC.
What was the result of the last match between Burnley and Portsmouth?
Portsmouth 0-0 Burnley on 01 February 2025.
What is the recent form of Burnley and Portsmouth?
Burnley have taken 5 points from their last five (LLDWD), Portsmouth 10 from theirs (WDWWL). Most recently Burnley took a 1-4 defeat away at Lincoln and Portsmouth a 2-1 win at home to Millwall.
How many goals are expected in Burnley vs Portsmouth?
The model's combined scoring line is 2.00 — 1.00 for Burnley and 1.00 for Portsmouth. It rates over 2.5 goals at 49%.
Will both teams score?
The model rates both teams to score at 55%, so its call is yes.
Who is unavailable?
Our injury feed lists 32 players unavailable for Burnley and 18 for Portsmouth at the time of writing. Confirmed line-ups land about an hour before kick-off.