Lincoln vs Birmingham: match summary, form and prediction
Our model makes Lincoln the pick at 52% for Lincoln vs Birmingham. Form trajectory, comparison data, head-to-head and the reasoning behind the call.
Match summary
Lincoln face Birmingham on 31 October 2026 at Sincil Bank, Lincoln. Lincoln are the model's favourite, with a win probability of roughly 52%. This matchday 13 fixture in Championship is listed as Lincoln - Birmingham. Kick-off is 12:30 UTC.
Recent form and trajectory
Lincoln: they come in on the back of a win, following one draw and three defeats before that. That is one win, one draw and three defeats from the last five, worth 4 points. Their 2026-season record in our dataset (11 scored and 9 conceded in eight matches, 1.38 and 1.12 per game) points to a fairly even balance between the two ends of the pitch. That is reflected in a form rating of 36.6 out of 100, and they sit 15th on a goal difference of -7.
Birmingham: they come in on the back of a defeat, following three wins and one draw before that. That is three wins, one draw and one defeat from the last five, worth 10 points. Their 2026-season record in our dataset (7 scored and 7 conceded in seven matches, 1.0 and 1.0 per game) points to a fairly even balance between the two ends of the pitch. That is reflected in a form rating of 60.3 out of 100, and they sit 7th on a goal difference of +8.
Comparison data
| Statistic | Lincoln | Birmingham |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 15th | 7th |
| Goal difference | -7 | +8 |
| Form (last 5, most recent first) | WDLLL | LWWWD |
| Points from last 5 | 4 | 10 |
| Goals scored / conceded (last 5) | 7 / 14 | 10 / 3 |
| Clean sheets (last 5) | 0 | 3 |
| Matches in our dataset (2026 season) | 8 | 7 |
| Goals per game, scored / conceded (2026) | 1.38 / 1.12 | 1.0 / 1.0 |
| Points per game (2026) | 1.88 | 1.29 |
| Form rating (0-100) | 36.6 | 60.3 |
| Players unavailable | 6 | 6 |
| Model win probability | 52% | 21% |
What stands out
- Pre-match form ratings: Lincoln 36.6 versus Birmingham 60.3, a gap of 23.7, which cuts against the model's favourite and is the tension in this one.
- Table gap: Eight places separate them, the kind of margin that usually shows in the first twenty minutes.
- Goals outlook: A combined scoring line of 2.80, over 2.5 goals at 56% and both teams to score at 58%.
- First goal: Leans Lincoln's way at 59%.
Sentiment and prediction
The model tilts to Lincoln at 52%, without enough room to treat it as a formality. Birmingham's stronger recent metrics back it and the goals line points to over 2.5 goals. Baseline expectation tilts Lincoln's way, especially at Sincil Bank.
This is a data-led read, not a certainty. The numbers are shown as they come out of the model so the basis for the call can be checked rather than assumed.
Frequently asked questions
Who is favoured to win the match: Lincoln or Birmingham?
Lincoln, with an implied win probability of roughly 52%. The full split is 52% Lincoln, 27% the draw and 21% Birmingham.
When and where is Lincoln vs Birmingham being played?
31 October 2026 at Sincil Bank, Lincoln, kick-off 12:30 UTC.
Have Lincoln and Birmingham met before?
Our records hold no previous meeting between the two sides.
What is the recent form of Lincoln and Birmingham?
Lincoln have taken 4 points from their last five (WDLLL), Birmingham 10 from theirs (LWWWD). Most recently Lincoln took a 4-1 win at home to Burnley and Birmingham a 0-1 defeat away at Cardiff.
How many goals are expected in Lincoln vs Birmingham?
The model's combined scoring line is 2.80 — 1.60 for Lincoln and 1.20 for Birmingham. It rates over 2.5 goals at 56%.
Will both teams score?
The model rates both teams to score at 58%, so its call is yes.
Who is unavailable?
Our injury feed lists six players unavailable for Lincoln and six for Birmingham at the time of writing. Confirmed line-ups land about an hour before kick-off.