Middlesbrough vs Charlton — form, head-to-head and match prediction
Our model makes Middlesbrough the pick at 75% for Middlesbrough vs Charlton. Form trajectory, comparison data, head-to-head and the reasoning behind the call.
The fixture at a glance
Middlesbrough host Charlton on 31 October 2026 at Riverside Stadium, Middlesbrough. Middlesbrough are the model's favourite, with a win probability of roughly 75%. This matchday 13 fixture in Championship is listed as Middlesbrough - Charlton. Kick-off is 15:00 UTC.
Form analysis and trajectory
Middlesbrough: they come in on the back of a win, following two wins and two draws before that. That is three wins, two draws and no defeats from the last five, worth 11 points. It leaves them unbeaten in five. Their 2026-season record in our dataset (15 scored and 11 conceded in seven matches, 2.14 and 1.57 per game) points to strong attacking output with occasional defensive lapses. That is reflected in a form rating of 64.2 out of 100, and they sit 1st on a goal difference of +10.
Charlton: they come in on back-to-back defeats, following two draws and one defeat before that. That is no wins, two draws and three defeats from the last five, worth 2 points. It leaves them winless in five. Their 2026-season record in our dataset (4 scored and 10 conceded in six matches, 0.67 and 1.67 per game) underlines issues at both ends. That is reflected in a form rating of 29.9 out of 100, and they sit 19th on a goal difference of -7.
Side by side
| Statistic | Middlesbrough | Charlton |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 1st | 19th |
| Goal difference | +10 | -7 |
| Form (last 5, most recent first) | WDWWD | LLDDL |
| Points from last 5 | 11 | 2 |
| Goals scored / conceded (last 5) | 13 / 7 | 5 / 11 |
| Clean sheets (last 5) | 1 | 0 |
| Matches in our dataset (2026 season) | 7 | 6 |
| Goals per game, scored / conceded (2026) | 2.14 / 1.57 | 0.67 / 1.67 |
| Points per game (2026) | 2.0 | 0.83 |
| Form rating (0-100) | 64.2 | 29.9 |
| Players unavailable | 6 | 8 |
| Model win probability | 75% | 9% |
| Head-to-head wins (last 2) | 1 | 1 |
Key match insights
- Head-to-head balance (last 2): Middlesbrough one win, Charlton one win, none draws — a historically tight match-up.
- Most recent meeting: Middlesbrough 0-1 Charlton on 11 March 2026.
- Head-to-head goals: 2.0 per game across those meetings, with both teams scoring in one of the two — a fixture that has historically stayed tight.
- Pre-match form ratings: Middlesbrough 64.2 versus Charlton 29.9, a gap of 34.2, which aligns with the model's favourite.
- Table gap: 18 places separate them, the kind of margin that usually shows in the first twenty minutes.
- Goals outlook: A combined scoring line of 2.80, over 2.5 goals at 59% and both teams to score at 53%.
- First goal: Leans Middlesbrough's way at 75%.
Sentiment and prediction
The model leans firmly towards Middlesbrough at 75%, a gap of 58 percentage points to the next outcome. Middlesbrough's form line and home advantage back it and the goals line points to over 2.5 goals. Baseline expectation tilts Middlesbrough's way, especially at Riverside Stadium.
This is a data-led read, not a certainty. The numbers are shown as they come out of the model so the basis for the call can be checked rather than assumed.
Frequently asked questions
Who is favoured to win the match: Middlesbrough or Charlton?
Middlesbrough, with an implied win probability of roughly 75%. The full split is 75% Middlesbrough, 17% the draw and 9% Charlton.
When and where is Middlesbrough vs Charlton being played?
31 October 2026 at Riverside Stadium, Middlesbrough, kick-off 15:00 UTC.
What was the result of the last match between Middlesbrough and Charlton?
Middlesbrough 0-1 Charlton on 11 March 2026.
What is the recent form of Middlesbrough and Charlton?
Middlesbrough have taken 11 points from their last five (WDWWD), Charlton 2 from theirs (LLDDL). Most recently Middlesbrough took a 5-1 win away at Bolton and Charlton a 1-3 defeat at home to Norwich.
How many goals are expected in Middlesbrough vs Charlton?
The model's combined scoring line is 2.80 — 2.60 for Middlesbrough and 0.20 for Charlton. It rates over 2.5 goals at 59%.
Will both teams score?
The model rates both teams to score at 53%, so its call is yes.
Who is unavailable?
Our injury feed lists six players unavailable for Middlesbrough and eight for Charlton at the time of writing. Confirmed line-ups land about an hour before kick-off.