Millwall vs Derby match summary and prediction — Championship
Our model makes Millwall the pick at 49% for Millwall vs Derby. Form trajectory, comparison data, head-to-head and the reasoning behind the call.
The fixture at a glance
Millwall face Derby on 31 October 2026 at The Den, London. Millwall are the model's favourite, with a win probability of roughly 49%. This matchday 13 fixture in Championship is listed as Millwall - Derby. Kick-off is 15:00 UTC.
Recent form and trajectory
Millwall: they come in on the back of a defeat, following one win, two draws and one defeat before that. That is one win, two draws and two defeats from the last five, worth 5 points. It leaves them three games without a win. Their 2026-season record in our dataset (11 scored and 11 conceded in seven matches, 1.57 and 1.57 per game) points to a fairly even balance between the two ends of the pitch. That is reflected in a form rating of 41.4 out of 100, and they sit 13th on a goal difference of -1.
Derby: they come in on the back of a draw, following two draws and two defeats before that. That is no wins, three draws and two defeats from the last five, worth 3 points. It leaves them winless in five. Their 2026-season record in our dataset (5 scored and 9 conceded in six matches, 0.83 and 1.5 per game) underlines how hard they have found it to score. That is reflected in a form rating of 32.2 out of 100, and they sit 23rd on a goal difference of -11.
Comparison data
| Statistic | Millwall | Derby |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 13th | 23rd |
| Goal difference | -1 | -11 |
| Form (last 5, most recent first) | LDLWD | DLLDD |
| Points from last 5 | 5 | 3 |
| Goals scored / conceded (last 5) | 6 / 7 | 4 / 8 |
| Clean sheets (last 5) | 1 | 0 |
| Matches in our dataset (2026 season) | 7 | 6 |
| Goals per game, scored / conceded (2026) | 1.57 / 1.57 | 0.83 / 1.5 |
| Points per game (2026) | 0.86 | 0.67 |
| Form rating (0-100) | 41.4 | 32.2 |
| Players unavailable | 14 | 18 |
| Model win probability | 49% | 23% |
| Head-to-head wins (last 4) | 2 | 0 |
What stands out
- Head-to-head balance (last 4): Millwall two wins, Derby none wins, two draws — an edge to Millwall.
- Most recent meeting: Millwall 1-0 Derby on 10 March 2026.
- Head-to-head goals: 1.5 per game across those meetings, with both teams scoring in two of the four — a fixture that has historically stayed tight.
- Pre-match form ratings: Millwall 41.4 versus Derby 32.2, a gap of 9.2, which aligns with the model's favourite.
- Table gap: Ten places separate them, the kind of margin that usually shows in the first twenty minutes.
- Availability: Derby carry the heavier absentee list, 18 players to 14.
- Goals outlook: A combined scoring line of 2.00, over 2.5 goals at 57% and both teams to score at 58%.
- First goal: Leans Millwall's way at 58%.
The call
The model tilts to Millwall at 49%, without enough room to treat it as a formality. The goals line points to over 2.5 goals and draw probability stays material given the head-to-head draw rate. Baseline expectation tilts Millwall's way, especially at The Den.
This is a data-led read, not a certainty. The numbers are shown as they come out of the model so the basis for the call can be checked rather than assumed.
Frequently asked questions
Who is favoured to win the match: Millwall or Derby?
Millwall, with an implied win probability of roughly 49%. The full split is 49% Millwall, 27% the draw and 23% Derby.
When and where is Millwall vs Derby being played?
31 October 2026 at The Den, London, kick-off 15:00 UTC.
What was the result of the last match between Millwall and Derby?
Millwall 1-0 Derby on 10 March 2026.
What is the recent form of Millwall and Derby?
Millwall have taken 5 points from their last five (LDLWD), Derby 3 from theirs (DLLDD). Most recently Millwall took a 1-2 defeat away at Portsmouth and Derby a 1-1 draw away at Sheffield Utd.
How many goals are expected in Millwall vs Derby?
The model's combined scoring line is 2.00 — 1.20 for Millwall and 0.80 for Derby. It rates over 2.5 goals at 57%.
Will both teams score?
The model rates both teams to score at 58%, so its call is yes.
Who is unavailable?
Our injury feed lists 14 players unavailable for Millwall and 18 for Derby at the time of writing. Confirmed line-ups land about an hour before kick-off.