Southampton vs QPR: match summary, form and prediction
Our model makes Southampton the pick at 62% for Southampton vs QPR. Form trajectory, comparison data, head-to-head and the reasoning behind the call.
Match summary
Southampton host QPR on 31 October 2026 at St. Mary's Stadium, Southampton. Southampton are the model's favourite, with a win probability of roughly 62%. This matchday 13 fixture in Championship is listed as Southampton - QPR. Kick-off is 15:00 UTC.
Recent form and trajectory
Southampton: they come in on the back of a win, following two wins, one draw and one defeat before that. That is three wins, one draw and one defeat from the last five, worth 10 points. It leaves them unbeaten in four. Their 2025-season record in our dataset (90 scored and 55 conceded in 49 matches, 1.84 and 1.12 per game) points to strong attacking output with occasional defensive lapses. That is reflected in a form rating of 61.3 out of 100, and they sit 6th on a goal difference of +12.
QPR: they come in on the back of a win, following one win, two draws and one defeat before that. That is two wins, two draws and one defeat from the last five, worth 8 points. Their 2025-season record in our dataset (53 scored and 70 conceded in 42 matches, 1.26 and 1.67 per game) points to a fairly even balance between the two ends of the pitch. That is reflected in a form rating of 53.7 out of 100, and they sit 8th on a goal difference of +8.
Comparison data
| Statistic | Southampton | QPR |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 6th | 8th |
| Goal difference | +12 | +8 |
| Form (last 5, most recent first) | WDWWL | WLWDD |
| Points from last 5 | 10 | 8 |
| Goals scored / conceded (last 5) | 6 / 4 | 12 / 7 |
| Clean sheets (last 5) | 3 | 1 |
| Matches in our dataset (2025 season) | 49 | 42 |
| Goals per game, scored / conceded (2025) | 1.84 / 1.12 | 1.26 / 1.67 |
| Points per game (2025) | 1.92 | 1.21 |
| Form rating (0-100) | 61.3 | 53.7 |
| Players unavailable | 4 | 10 |
| Model win probability | 62% | 16% |
| Head-to-head wins (last 2) | 2 | 0 |
Key match insights
- Head-to-head balance (last 2): Southampton two wins, QPR none wins, none draws — an edge to Southampton.
- Most recent meeting: Southampton 5-0 QPR on 24 February 2026.
- Head-to-head goals: 4.0 per game across those meetings, with both teams scoring in one of the two — a fixture that has tended to open up.
- Pre-match form ratings: Southampton 61.3 versus QPR 53.7, a gap of 7.7, which aligns with the model's favourite.
- Availability: QPR carry the heavier absentee list, ten players to four.
- Goals outlook: A combined scoring line of 3.80, over 2.5 goals at 63% and both teams to score at 62%.
- First goal: Leans Southampton's way at 65%.
Sentiment and prediction
The model leans firmly towards Southampton at 62%, a gap of 40 percentage points to the next outcome. The goals line points to over 2.5 goals. Baseline expectation tilts Southampton's way, especially at St. Mary's Stadium.
This is a data-led read, not a certainty. The numbers are shown as they come out of the model so the basis for the call can be checked rather than assumed.
Frequently asked questions
Who is favoured to win the match: Southampton or QPR?
Southampton, with an implied win probability of roughly 62%. The full split is 62% Southampton, 22% the draw and 16% QPR.
When and where is Southampton vs QPR being played?
31 October 2026 at St. Mary's Stadium, Southampton, kick-off 15:00 UTC.
What was the result of the last match between Southampton and QPR?
Southampton 5-0 QPR on 24 February 2026.
What is the recent form of Southampton and QPR?
Southampton have taken 10 points from their last five (WDWWL), QPR 8 from theirs (WLWDD). Most recently Southampton took a 3-2 win away at West Ham and QPR a 5-0 win at home to Swansea.
How many goals are expected in Southampton vs QPR?
The model's combined scoring line is 3.80 — 2.40 for Southampton and 1.40 for QPR. It rates over 2.5 goals at 63%.
Will both teams score?
The model rates both teams to score at 62%, so its call is yes.
Who is unavailable?
Our injury feed lists four players unavailable for Southampton and ten for QPR at the time of writing. Confirmed line-ups land about an hour before kick-off.