Swansea vs Blackburn: the numbers, the form and our prediction
Our model makes Swansea the pick at 45% for Swansea vs Blackburn. Form trajectory, comparison data, head-to-head and the reasoning behind the call.
Match summary
Blackburn travel to Swansea on 31 October 2026 at Swansea.com Stadium, Swansea. Swansea are the model's favourite, with a win probability of roughly 45%. This matchday 13 fixture in Championship is listed as Swansea - Blackburn. Kick-off is 15:00 UTC.
Form analysis and trajectory
Swansea: they come in on back-to-back defeats, following three wins before that. That is three wins, no draws and two defeats from the last five, worth 9 points. Their 2026-season record in our dataset (6 scored and 10 conceded in six matches, 1.0 and 1.67 per game) points to a fairly even balance between the two ends of the pitch. That is reflected in a form rating of 55.8 out of 100, and they sit 2nd on a goal difference of +3.
Blackburn: they come in on the back of a win, following two wins, one draw and one defeat before that. That is three wins, one draw and one defeat from the last five, worth 10 points. Their 2026-season record in our dataset (9 scored and 6 conceded in six matches, 1.5 and 1.0 per game) points to a fairly even balance between the two ends of the pitch. That is reflected in a form rating of 59.1 out of 100, and they sit 11th on a goal difference of +3.
Comparison data
| Statistic | Swansea | Blackburn |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 2nd | 11th |
| Goal difference | +3 | +3 |
| Form (last 5, most recent first) | LLWWW | WLWWD |
| Points from last 5 | 9 | 10 |
| Goals scored / conceded (last 5) | 5 / 8 | 9 / 6 |
| Clean sheets (last 5) | 1 | 2 |
| Matches in our dataset (2026 season) | 6 | 6 |
| Goals per game, scored / conceded (2026) | 1.0 / 1.67 | 1.5 / 1.0 |
| Points per game (2026) | 1.17 | 1.67 |
| Form rating (0-100) | 55.8 | 59.1 |
| Players unavailable | 6 | 14 |
| Model win probability | 45% | 29% |
| Head-to-head wins (last 4) | 3 | 1 |
What stands out
- Head-to-head balance (last 4): Swansea three wins, Blackburn one win, none draws — an edge to Swansea.
- Most recent meeting: Swansea 3-1 Blackburn on 20 January 2026.
- Head-to-head goals: 2.75 per game across those meetings, with both teams scoring in two of the four — broadly an average game for goals.
- Pre-match form ratings: Swansea 55.8 versus Blackburn 59.1, a gap of 3.3, which cuts against the model's favourite and is the tension in this one.
- Table gap: Nine places separate them, the kind of margin that usually shows in the first twenty minutes.
- Availability: Blackburn carry the heavier absentee list, 14 players to six.
- Goals outlook: A combined scoring line of 2.60, over 2.5 goals at 53% and both teams to score at 56%.
- First goal: Leans Swansea's way at 52%.
The call
The model edges towards Swansea at 45%, and 'edges' is doing real work in that sentence. Blackburn's stronger recent metrics back it and the goals line points to over 2.5 goals. Baseline expectation tilts Swansea's way, especially at Swansea.com Stadium.
Everything here is model output and a reading of the form rather than a guarantee — the probabilities are published in full so the reasoning behind the call is visible.
Frequently asked questions
Who is favoured to win the match: Swansea or Blackburn?
Swansea, with an implied win probability of roughly 45%. The full split is 45% Swansea, 26% the draw and 29% Blackburn.
When and where is Swansea vs Blackburn being played?
31 October 2026 at Swansea.com Stadium, Swansea, kick-off 15:00 UTC.
What was the result of the last match between Swansea and Blackburn?
Swansea 3-1 Blackburn on 20 January 2026.
What is the recent form of Swansea and Blackburn?
Swansea have taken 9 points from their last five (LLWWW), Blackburn 10 from theirs (WLWWD). Most recently Swansea took a 0-5 defeat away at QPR and Blackburn a 2-0 win at home to Wrexham.
How many goals are expected in Swansea vs Blackburn?
The model's combined scoring line is 2.60 — 1.20 for Swansea and 1.40 for Blackburn. It rates over 2.5 goals at 53%.
Will both teams score?
The model rates both teams to score at 56%, so its call is yes.
Who is unavailable?
Our injury feed lists six players unavailable for Swansea and 14 for Blackburn at the time of writing. Confirmed line-ups land about an hour before kick-off.