Birmingham vs Millwall — form, head-to-head and match prediction
Our model makes Birmingham the pick at 42% for Birmingham vs Millwall. Form trajectory, comparison data, head-to-head and the reasoning behind the call.
Match summary
Millwall travel to Birmingham on 3 November 2026 at St. Andrew's Stadium, Birmingham. Birmingham are the model's favourite, with a win probability of roughly 42%. This matchday 14 fixture in Championship is listed as Birmingham - Millwall. Kick-off is 20:00 UTC.
Recent form and trajectory
Birmingham: they come in on the back of a defeat, following three wins and one draw before that. That is three wins, one draw and one defeat from the last five, worth 10 points. Their 2026-season record in our dataset (7 scored and 7 conceded in seven matches, 1.0 and 1.0 per game) points to a fairly even balance between the two ends of the pitch. That is reflected in a form rating of 60.3 out of 100, and they sit 7th on a goal difference of +8.
Millwall: they come in on the back of a defeat, following one win, two draws and one defeat before that. That is one win, two draws and two defeats from the last five, worth 5 points. It leaves them three games without a win. Their 2026-season record in our dataset (11 scored and 11 conceded in seven matches, 1.57 and 1.57 per game) points to a fairly even balance between the two ends of the pitch. That is reflected in a form rating of 41.4 out of 100, and they sit 13th on a goal difference of -1.
Side by side
| Statistic | Birmingham | Millwall |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 7th | 13th |
| Goal difference | +8 | -1 |
| Form (last 5, most recent first) | LWWWD | LDLWD |
| Points from last 5 | 10 | 5 |
| Goals scored / conceded (last 5) | 10 / 3 | 6 / 7 |
| Clean sheets (last 5) | 3 | 1 |
| Matches in our dataset (2026 season) | 7 | 7 |
| Goals per game, scored / conceded (2026) | 1.0 / 1.0 | 1.57 / 1.57 |
| Points per game (2026) | 1.29 | 0.86 |
| Form rating (0-100) | 60.3 | 41.4 |
| Players unavailable | 0 | 0 |
| Model win probability | 42% | 30% |
| Head-to-head wins (last 2) | 1 | 1 |
Key match insights
- Head-to-head balance (last 2): Birmingham one win, Millwall one win, none draws — a historically tight match-up.
- Most recent meeting: Millwall 3-0 Birmingham on 25 February 2026.
- Head-to-head goals: 3.5 per game across those meetings, with both teams scoring in none of the two — a fixture that has tended to open up.
- Pre-match form ratings: Birmingham 60.3 versus Millwall 41.4, a gap of 18.9, which aligns with the model's favourite.
- Availability: No absentees listed for either side in our injury feed at the time of writing.
- Goals outlook: A combined scoring line of 2.40, over 2.5 goals at 53% and both teams to score at 56%.
- First goal: Leans Birmingham's way at 51%.
Sentiment and prediction
The model edges towards Birmingham at 42%, and 'edges' is doing real work in that sentence. Birmingham's form line and home advantage back it and the goals line points to over 2.5 goals. Baseline expectation tilts Birmingham's way, especially at St. Andrew's Stadium.
Everything here is model output and a reading of the form rather than a guarantee — the probabilities are published in full so the reasoning behind the call is visible.
Frequently asked questions
Who is favoured to win the match: Birmingham or Millwall?
Birmingham, with an implied win probability of roughly 42%. The full split is 42% Birmingham, 27% the draw and 30% Millwall.
When and where is Birmingham vs Millwall being played?
3 November 2026 at St. Andrew's Stadium, Birmingham, kick-off 20:00 UTC.
What was the result of the last match between Birmingham and Millwall?
Millwall 3-0 Birmingham on 25 February 2026.
What is the recent form of Birmingham and Millwall?
Birmingham have taken 10 points from their last five (LWWWD), Millwall 5 from theirs (LDLWD). Most recently Birmingham took a 0-1 defeat away at Cardiff and Millwall a 1-2 defeat away at Portsmouth.
How many goals are expected in Birmingham vs Millwall?
The model's combined scoring line is 2.40 — 1.20 for Birmingham and 1.20 for Millwall. It rates over 2.5 goals at 53%.
Will both teams score?
The model rates both teams to score at 56%, so its call is yes.