Blackburn vs Stoke City match summary and prediction — Championship
Our model makes Blackburn the pick at 48% for Blackburn vs Stoke City. Form trajectory, comparison data, head-to-head and the reasoning behind the call.
Match summary
Blackburn face Stoke City on 3 November 2026 at Ewood Park, Blackburn. Blackburn are the model's favourite, with a win probability of roughly 48%. This matchday 14 fixture in Championship is listed as Blackburn - Stoke City. Kick-off is 19:45 UTC.
Recent form and trajectory
Blackburn: they come in on the back of a win, following two wins, one draw and one defeat before that. That is three wins, one draw and one defeat from the last five, worth 10 points. Their 2026-season record in our dataset (9 scored and 6 conceded in six matches, 1.5 and 1.0 per game) points to a fairly even balance between the two ends of the pitch. That is reflected in a form rating of 59.1 out of 100, and they sit 11th on a goal difference of +3.
Stoke City: they come in on the back of a draw, following three wins and one defeat before that. That is three wins, one draw and one defeat from the last five, worth 10 points. Their 2026-season record in our dataset (10 scored and 2 conceded in six matches, 1.67 and 0.33 per game) points to a side built on keeping the game tight rather than winning it early. That is reflected in a form rating of 58.8 out of 100, and they sit 9th on a goal difference of +2.
Comparison data
| Statistic | Blackburn | Stoke City |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 11th | 9th |
| Goal difference | +3 | +2 |
| Form (last 5, most recent first) | WLWWD | DWLWW |
| Points from last 5 | 10 | 10 |
| Goals scored / conceded (last 5) | 9 / 6 | 7 / 5 |
| Clean sheets (last 5) | 2 | 2 |
| Matches in our dataset (2026 season) | 6 | 6 |
| Goals per game, scored / conceded (2026) | 1.5 / 1.0 | 1.67 / 0.33 |
| Points per game (2026) | 1.67 | 2.33 |
| Form rating (0-100) | 59.1 | 58.8 |
| Players unavailable | 0 | 0 |
| Model win probability | 48% | 28% |
| Head-to-head wins (last 4) | 0 | 2 |
Key match insights
- Head-to-head balance (last 4): Blackburn none wins, Stoke City two wins, two draws — an edge to Stoke City.
- Most recent meeting: Stoke City 1-1 Blackburn on 11 April 2026.
- Head-to-head goals: 1.75 per game across those meetings, with both teams scoring in two of the four — a fixture that has historically stayed tight.
- Availability: No absentees listed for either side in our injury feed at the time of writing.
- Goals outlook: A combined scoring line of 3.00, over 2.5 goals at 55% and both teams to score at 56%.
- First goal: Leans Blackburn's way at 57%.
Sentiment and prediction
The model tilts to Blackburn at 48%, without enough room to treat it as a formality. The goals line points to over 2.5 goals and draw probability stays material given the head-to-head draw rate. Baseline expectation tilts Blackburn's way, especially at Ewood Park.
This is a data-led read, not a certainty. The numbers are shown as they come out of the model so the basis for the call can be checked rather than assumed.
Frequently asked questions
Who is favoured to win the match: Blackburn or Stoke City?
Blackburn, with an implied win probability of roughly 48%. The full split is 48% Blackburn, 24% the draw and 28% Stoke City.
When and where is Blackburn vs Stoke City being played?
3 November 2026 at Ewood Park, Blackburn, kick-off 19:45 UTC.
What was the result of the last match between Blackburn and Stoke City?
Stoke City 1-1 Blackburn on 11 April 2026.
What is the recent form of Blackburn and Stoke City?
Blackburn have taken 10 points from their last five (WLWWD), Stoke City 10 from theirs (DWLWW). Most recently Blackburn took a 2-0 win at home to Wrexham and Stoke City a 0-0 draw at home to Bristol City.
How many goals are expected in Blackburn vs Stoke City?
The model's combined scoring line is 3.00 — 1.40 for Blackburn and 1.60 for Stoke City. It rates over 2.5 goals at 55%.
Will both teams score?
The model rates both teams to score at 56%, so its call is yes.