Derby vs Norwich — form, head-to-head and match prediction
Our model makes Norwich the pick at 49% for Derby vs Norwich. Form trajectory, comparison data, head-to-head and the reasoning behind the call.
The fixture at a glance
Norwich travel to Derby on 3 November 2026 at Pride Park, Derby. Norwich are the model's favourite, with a win probability of roughly 49%. This matchday 14 fixture in Championship is listed as Derby - Norwich. Kick-off is 19:45 UTC.
Recent form and trajectory
Derby: they come in on the back of a draw, following two draws and two defeats before that. That is no wins, three draws and two defeats from the last five, worth 3 points. It leaves them winless in five. Their 2026-season record in our dataset (5 scored and 9 conceded in six matches, 0.83 and 1.5 per game) underlines how hard they have found it to score. That is reflected in a form rating of 32.2 out of 100, and they sit 23rd on a goal difference of -11.
Norwich: they come in on the back of a win, following four defeats before that. That is one win, no draws and four defeats from the last five, worth 3 points. Their 2026-season record in our dataset (15 scored and 9 conceded in six matches, 2.5 and 1.5 per game) points to strong attacking output with occasional defensive lapses. That is reflected in a form rating of 34.5 out of 100, and they sit 20th on a goal difference of -2.
Side by side
| Statistic | Derby | Norwich |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 23rd | 20th |
| Goal difference | -11 | -2 |
| Form (last 5, most recent first) | DLLDD | WLLLL |
| Points from last 5 | 3 | 3 |
| Goals scored / conceded (last 5) | 4 / 8 | 7 / 9 |
| Clean sheets (last 5) | 0 | 0 |
| Matches in our dataset (2026 season) | 6 | 6 |
| Goals per game, scored / conceded (2026) | 0.83 / 1.5 | 2.5 / 1.5 |
| Points per game (2026) | 0.67 | 2.0 |
| Form rating (0-100) | 32.2 | 34.5 |
| Players unavailable | 0 | 0 |
| Model win probability | 27% | 49% |
| Head-to-head wins (last 4) | 1 | 2 |
What stands out
- Head-to-head balance (last 4): Derby one win, Norwich two wins, one draw — a historically tight match-up.
- Most recent meeting: Norwich 2-1 Derby on 21 April 2026.
- Head-to-head goals: 2.75 per game across those meetings, with both teams scoring in three of the four — broadly an average game for goals.
- Pre-match form ratings: Derby 32.2 versus Norwich 34.5, a gap of 2.2, which aligns with the model's favourite.
- Availability: No absentees listed for either side in our injury feed at the time of writing.
- Goals outlook: A combined scoring line of 3.00, over 2.5 goals at 55% and both teams to score at 59%.
- First goal: Leans Norwich's way at 55%.
The call
The model tilts to Norwich at 49%, without enough room to treat it as a formality. The goals line points to over 2.5 goals.
Everything here is model output and a reading of the form rather than a guarantee — the probabilities are published in full so the reasoning behind the call is visible.
Frequently asked questions
Who is favoured to win the match: Derby or Norwich?
Norwich, with an implied win probability of roughly 49%. The full split is 27% Derby, 23% the draw and 49% Norwich.
When and where is Derby vs Norwich being played?
3 November 2026 at Pride Park, Derby, kick-off 19:45 UTC.
What was the result of the last match between Derby and Norwich?
Norwich 2-1 Derby on 21 April 2026.
What is the recent form of Derby and Norwich?
Derby have taken 3 points from their last five (DLLDD), Norwich 3 from theirs (WLLLL). Most recently Derby took a 1-1 draw away at Sheffield Utd and Norwich a 3-1 win away at Charlton.
How many goals are expected in Derby vs Norwich?
The model's combined scoring line is 3.00 — 0.80 for Derby and 2.20 for Norwich. It rates over 2.5 goals at 55%.
Will both teams score?
The model rates both teams to score at 59%, so its call is yes.