Portsmouth vs Swansea: match summary, form and prediction
Our model makes Portsmouth the pick at 40% for Portsmouth vs Swansea. Form trajectory, comparison data, head-to-head and the reasoning behind the call.
The fixture at a glance
Portsmouth face Swansea on 3 November 2026 at Fratton Park, Portsmouth. Portsmouth are the model's favourite, with a win probability of roughly 40%. This matchday 14 fixture in Championship is listed as Portsmouth - Swansea. Kick-off is 19:45 UTC.
Recent form and trajectory
Portsmouth: they come in on the back of a win, following two wins, one draw and one defeat before that. That is three wins, one draw and one defeat from the last five, worth 10 points. It leaves them unbeaten in four. Their 2025-season record in our dataset (45 scored and 62 conceded in 44 matches, 1.02 and 1.41 per game) points to a fairly even balance between the two ends of the pitch. That is reflected in a form rating of 58.6 out of 100, and they sit 12th on a goal difference of +1.
Swansea: they come in on back-to-back defeats, following three wins before that. That is three wins, no draws and two defeats from the last five, worth 9 points. Their 2025-season record in our dataset (54 scored and 56 conceded in 43 matches, 1.26 and 1.3 per game) points to a fairly even balance between the two ends of the pitch. That is reflected in a form rating of 55.8 out of 100, and they sit 2nd on a goal difference of +3.
Comparison data
| Statistic | Portsmouth | Swansea |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 12th | 2nd |
| Goal difference | +1 | +3 |
| Form (last 5, most recent first) | WDWWL | LLWWW |
| Points from last 5 | 10 | 9 |
| Goals scored / conceded (last 5) | 7 / 5 | 5 / 8 |
| Clean sheets (last 5) | 1 | 1 |
| Matches in our dataset (2025 season) | 44 | 43 |
| Goals per game, scored / conceded (2025) | 1.02 / 1.41 | 1.26 / 1.3 |
| Points per game (2025) | 1.11 | 1.4 |
| Form rating (0-100) | 58.6 | 55.8 |
| Players unavailable | 0 | 0 |
| Model win probability | 40% | 31% |
| Head-to-head wins (last 4) | 1 | 2 |
What stands out
- Head-to-head balance (last 4): Portsmouth one win, Swansea two wins, one draw — a historically tight match-up.
- Most recent meeting: Portsmouth 1-2 Swansea on 10 March 2026.
- Head-to-head goals: 3.0 per game across those meetings, with both teams scoring in two of the four — a fixture that has tended to open up.
- Pre-match form ratings: Portsmouth 58.6 versus Swansea 55.8, a gap of 2.8, which aligns with the model's favourite.
- Table gap: Ten places separate them, the kind of margin that usually shows in the first twenty minutes.
- Availability: No absentees listed for either side in our injury feed at the time of writing.
- Goals outlook: A combined scoring line of 2.20, over 2.5 goals at 47% and both teams to score at 53%.
- First goal: Leans Portsmouth's way at 49%.
Sentiment and prediction
The model edges towards Portsmouth at 40%, and 'edges' is doing real work in that sentence. Portsmouth's form line and home advantage back it and the goals line points to under 2.5 goals. Baseline expectation tilts Portsmouth's way, especially at Fratton Park.
Everything here is model output and a reading of the form rather than a guarantee — the probabilities are published in full so the reasoning behind the call is visible.
Frequently asked questions
Who is favoured to win the match: Portsmouth or Swansea?
Portsmouth, with an implied win probability of roughly 40%. The full split is 40% Portsmouth, 29% the draw and 31% Swansea.
When and where is Portsmouth vs Swansea being played?
3 November 2026 at Fratton Park, Portsmouth, kick-off 19:45 UTC.
What was the result of the last match between Portsmouth and Swansea?
Portsmouth 1-2 Swansea on 10 March 2026.
What is the recent form of Portsmouth and Swansea?
Portsmouth have taken 10 points from their last five (WDWWL), Swansea 9 from theirs (LLWWW). Most recently Portsmouth took a 2-1 win at home to Millwall and Swansea a 0-5 defeat away at QPR.
How many goals are expected in Portsmouth vs Swansea?
The model's combined scoring line is 2.20 — 1.00 for Portsmouth and 1.20 for Swansea. It rates over 2.5 goals at 47%.
Will both teams score?
The model rates both teams to score at 53%, so its call is yes.