QPR vs Burnley match summary and prediction — Championship
Our model makes QPR the pick at 44% for QPR vs Burnley. Form trajectory, comparison data, head-to-head and the reasoning behind the call.
The fixture at a glance
QPR host Burnley on 3 November 2026 at Loftus Road, London. QPR are the model's favourite, with a win probability of roughly 44%. This matchday 14 fixture in Championship is listed as QPR - Burnley. Kick-off is 19:45 UTC.
Form analysis and trajectory
QPR: they come in on the back of a win, following one win, two draws and one defeat before that. That is two wins, two draws and one defeat from the last five, worth 8 points. Their 2025-season record in our dataset (53 scored and 70 conceded in 42 matches, 1.26 and 1.67 per game) points to a fairly even balance between the two ends of the pitch. That is reflected in a form rating of 53.7 out of 100, and they sit 8th on a goal difference of +8.
Burnley: they come in on back-to-back defeats, following one win and two draws before that. That is one win, two draws and two defeats from the last five, worth 5 points. It leaves them three games without a win. Their 2025-season record in our dataset (41 scored and 73 conceded in 36 matches, 1.14 and 2.03 per game) points to a fairly even balance between the two ends of the pitch. That is reflected in a form rating of 39.7 out of 100, and they sit 22nd on a goal difference of -8.
Comparison data
| Statistic | QPR | Burnley |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 8th | 22nd |
| Goal difference | +8 | -8 |
| Form (last 5, most recent first) | WLWDD | LLDWD |
| Points from last 5 | 8 | 5 |
| Goals scored / conceded (last 5) | 12 / 7 | 9 / 9 |
| Clean sheets (last 5) | 1 | 1 |
| Matches in our dataset (2025 season) | 42 | 36 |
| Goals per game, scored / conceded (2025) | 1.26 / 1.67 | 1.14 / 2.03 |
| Points per game (2025) | 1.21 | 0.61 |
| Form rating (0-100) | 53.7 | 39.7 |
| Players unavailable | 0 | 0 |
| Model win probability | 44% | 28% |
| Head-to-head wins (last 2) | 0 | 1 |
Key match insights
- Head-to-head balance (last 2): QPR none wins, Burnley one win, one draw — a historically tight match-up.
- Most recent meeting: QPR 0-5 Burnley on 26 April 2025.
- Head-to-head goals: 2.5 per game across those meetings, with both teams scoring in none of the two — broadly an average game for goals.
- Pre-match form ratings: QPR 53.7 versus Burnley 39.7, a gap of 14.0, which aligns with the model's favourite.
- Table gap: 14 places separate them, the kind of margin that usually shows in the first twenty minutes.
- Availability: No absentees listed for either side in our injury feed at the time of writing.
- Goals outlook: A combined scoring line of 2.40, over 2.5 goals at 47% and both teams to score at 54%.
- First goal: Leans QPR's way at 52%.
The call
The model edges towards QPR at 44%, and 'edges' is doing real work in that sentence. QPR's form line and home advantage back it and the goals line points to under 2.5 goals. Baseline expectation tilts QPR's way, especially at Loftus Road.
This is a data-led read, not a certainty. The numbers are shown as they come out of the model so the basis for the call can be checked rather than assumed.
Frequently asked questions
Who is favoured to win the match: QPR or Burnley?
QPR, with an implied win probability of roughly 44%. The full split is 44% QPR, 27% the draw and 28% Burnley.
When and where is QPR vs Burnley being played?
3 November 2026 at Loftus Road, London, kick-off 19:45 UTC.
What was the result of the last match between QPR and Burnley?
QPR 0-5 Burnley on 26 April 2025.
What is the recent form of QPR and Burnley?
QPR have taken 8 points from their last five (WLWDD), Burnley 5 from theirs (LLDWD). Most recently QPR took a 5-0 win at home to Swansea and Burnley a 1-4 defeat away at Lincoln.
How many goals are expected in QPR vs Burnley?
The model's combined scoring line is 2.40 — 1.40 for QPR and 1.00 for Burnley. It rates over 2.5 goals at 47%.
Will both teams score?
The model rates both teams to score at 54%, so its call is yes.