Cardiff vs West Ham: the numbers, the form and our prediction
There is barely anything between Cardiff and West Ham on our numbers. Form trajectory, a side-by-side comparison, the head-to-head record and where the model does — and does not — commit.
Match summary
Cardiff face West Ham on 4 November 2026 at Cardiff City Stadium, Cardiff. West Ham are the model's favourite, with a win probability of roughly 40%. This matchday 14 fixture in Championship is listed as Cardiff - West Ham. Kick-off is 19:45 UTC.
Form analysis and trajectory
Cardiff: they come in on the back of a win, following two wins, one draw and one defeat before that. That is three wins, one draw and one defeat from the last five, worth 10 points. It leaves them unbeaten in three. Their 2026-season record in our dataset (7 scored and 8 conceded in six matches, 1.17 and 1.33 per game) points to a fairly even balance between the two ends of the pitch. That is reflected in a form rating of 58.8 out of 100, and they sit 16th on a goal difference of +2.
West Ham: they come in on the back of a defeat, following two wins and two draws before that. That is two wins, two draws and one defeat from the last five, worth 8 points. Their 2026-season record in our dataset (23 scored and 11 conceded in seven matches, 3.29 and 1.57 per game) points to strong attacking output with occasional defensive lapses. That is reflected in a form rating of 55.9 out of 100, and they sit 3rd on a goal difference of +17.
Comparison data
| Statistic | Cardiff | West Ham |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 16th | 3rd |
| Goal difference | +2 | +17 |
| Form (last 5, most recent first) | WDWLW | LWWDD |
| Points from last 5 | 10 | 8 |
| Goals scored / conceded (last 5) | 12 / 6 | 12 / 6 |
| Clean sheets (last 5) | 1 | 2 |
| Matches in our dataset (2026 season) | 6 | 7 |
| Goals per game, scored / conceded (2026) | 1.17 / 1.33 | 3.29 / 1.57 |
| Points per game (2026) | 1.33 | 2.14 |
| Form rating (0-100) | 58.8 | 55.9 |
| Players unavailable | 0 | 0 |
| Model win probability | 36% | 40% |
Key match insights
- Pre-match form ratings: Cardiff 58.8 versus West Ham 55.9, a gap of 2.9, which cuts against the model's favourite and is the tension in this one.
- Table gap: 13 places separate them, the kind of margin that usually shows in the first twenty minutes.
- Availability: No absentees listed for either side in our injury feed at the time of writing.
- Goals outlook: A combined scoring line of 4.00, over 2.5 goals at 59% and both teams to score at 58%.
- First goal: Leans West Ham's way at 54%.
Sentiment and prediction
The model does not commit. West Ham is the nominal pick at 40%, but the three results sit close to even. The goals line points to over 2.5 goals.
Everything here is model output and a reading of the form rather than a guarantee — the probabilities are published in full so the reasoning behind the call is visible.
Frequently asked questions
Who is favoured to win the match: Cardiff or West Ham?
West Ham, with an implied win probability of roughly 40%. The full split is 36% Cardiff, 24% the draw and 40% West Ham.
When and where is Cardiff vs West Ham being played?
4 November 2026 at Cardiff City Stadium, Cardiff, kick-off 19:45 UTC.
Have Cardiff and West Ham met before?
Our records hold no previous meeting between the two sides.
What is the recent form of Cardiff and West Ham?
Cardiff have taken 10 points from their last five (WDWLW), West Ham 8 from theirs (LWWDD). Most recently Cardiff took a 1-0 win at home to Birmingham and West Ham a 2-3 defeat at home to Southampton.
How many goals are expected in Cardiff vs West Ham?
The model's combined scoring line is 4.00 — 0.80 for Cardiff and 3.20 for West Ham. It rates over 2.5 goals at 59%.
Will both teams score?
The model rates both teams to score at 58%, so its call is yes.