Charlton vs Bolton match summary and prediction — Championship
Our model makes Bolton the pick at 42% for Charlton vs Bolton. Form trajectory, comparison data, head-to-head and the reasoning behind the call.
The fixture at a glance
Charlton host Bolton on 3 November 2026 at The Valley, London. Bolton are the model's favourite, with a win probability of roughly 42%. This matchday 14 fixture in Championship is listed as Charlton - Bolton. Kick-off is 19:45 UTC.
Recent form and trajectory
Charlton: they come in on back-to-back defeats, following two draws and one defeat before that. That is no wins, two draws and three defeats from the last five, worth 2 points. It leaves them winless in five. Their 2026-season record in our dataset (4 scored and 10 conceded in six matches, 0.67 and 1.67 per game) underlines issues at both ends. That is reflected in a form rating of 29.9 out of 100, and they sit 19th on a goal difference of -7.
Bolton: they come in on the back of a defeat, following two wins, one draw and one defeat before that. That is two wins, one draw and two defeats from the last five, worth 7 points. Their 2026-season record in our dataset (6 scored and 16 conceded in six matches, 1.0 and 2.67 per game) points to a fairly even balance between the two ends of the pitch. That is reflected in a form rating of 46.6 out of 100, and they sit 18th on a goal difference of -7.
Comparison data
| Statistic | Charlton | Bolton |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 19th | 18th |
| Goal difference | -7 | -7 |
| Form (last 5, most recent first) | LLDDL | LDWLW |
| Points from last 5 | 2 | 7 |
| Goals scored / conceded (last 5) | 5 / 11 | 9 / 11 |
| Clean sheets (last 5) | 0 | 1 |
| Matches in our dataset (2026 season) | 6 | 6 |
| Goals per game, scored / conceded (2026) | 0.67 / 1.67 | 1.0 / 2.67 |
| Points per game (2026) | 0.83 | 0.5 |
| Form rating (0-100) | 29.9 | 46.6 |
| Players unavailable | 0 | 0 |
| Model win probability | 29% | 42% |
Key match insights
- Pre-match form ratings: Charlton 29.9 versus Bolton 46.6, a gap of 16.7, which aligns with the model's favourite.
- Availability: No absentees listed for either side in our injury feed at the time of writing.
- Goals outlook: A combined scoring line of 1.40, over 2.5 goals at 49% and both teams to score at 54%.
- First goal: Leans Bolton's way at 51%.
The call
The model edges towards Bolton at 42%, and 'edges' is doing real work in that sentence. Bolton's stronger recent metrics back it and the goals line points to under 2.5 goals.
This is a data-led read, not a certainty. The numbers are shown as they come out of the model so the basis for the call can be checked rather than assumed.
Frequently asked questions
Who is favoured to win the match: Charlton or Bolton?
Bolton, with an implied win probability of roughly 42%. The full split is 29% Charlton, 29% the draw and 42% Bolton.
When and where is Charlton vs Bolton being played?
3 November 2026 at The Valley, London, kick-off 19:45 UTC.
Have Charlton and Bolton met before?
Our records hold no previous meeting between the two sides.
What is the recent form of Charlton and Bolton?
Charlton have taken 2 points from their last five (LLDDL), Bolton 7 from theirs (LDWLW). Most recently Charlton took a 1-3 defeat at home to Norwich and Bolton a 1-5 defeat at home to Middlesbrough.
How many goals are expected in Charlton vs Bolton?
The model's combined scoring line is 1.40 — 0.20 for Charlton and 1.20 for Bolton. It rates over 2.5 goals at 49%.
Will both teams score?
The model rates both teams to score at 54%, so its call is yes.